4 ms·

> The reason the strategy wasn't ever going to work is because the fear level wasn't high enough The average American 35 year old thinks if they catch covid th

> The reason the strategy wasn't ever going to work is because the fear level wasn't high enough The average American 35 year old thinks if they catch covid they have a >10% chance of dying. This is off by almost 1000x. If you drove that error down to 0 so people knew exactly what there risks were if they got covid (i.e. for most healthy adults and children, covid is a complete non-event)... I don't think the general public would tolerate any of these NPI's at all. The fact that people can overestimate their covid risks by almost 1000x has destroyed our ability to have rational discussions about kids in school, who should be prioritized for vaccination, and how we should return to actual normal life. Shoveling nonstop boatloads of absolute fear into peoples head has been one of the most morally bankrupt things the media and public health "experts" have done over the course of the pandemic. Society is going to spend years cleaning up the mental health train-wreck these people have caused. Source for the figures. Take a look. It blows me away how wrong peoples risk perceptions are of covid. https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/ https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/

ryandrake 6y ago
I don't know anyone who over-estimated their chances of dying, took precautions, and then regretted over-estimating, but I bet that close to 100% of the people who under-estimated their chances of dying regretted it on their death beds. Personally, I am not afraid to admit I am scared of a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic people, incubates for two weeks, then can kill you, but hey, I guess that just makes me a scaredy-cat. I'm willing to live with that label.
- spookthesunset 6y ago
  So are you the type I see blasting through red lights on your bicycle wearing a mask and no helmet? Are you the type of person I see who blindly steps out into a busy street to maintain "proper social distance" when somebody walks by you? Because risks are everywhere. Overestimating your risks from covid by 1000x results in making some really, really poor risk tradeoffs. People joke about dudes drinking bleach and stuff but that behavior was because they vastly overestimated their covid risks... so much so they completely disregarded the very real risks of... you know... drinking bleach. Much more serious examples of bad risk tradeoffs are how many parents are handling their kids. Some of the stuff people are doing to their poor children is downright deplorable. For example keeping them completely isolated from outside contact. All of it is because their perceptions of covid risks are incredibly wrong. The media and these "experts" have created a huge shadow pandemic of unchecked, irrational fear. Absolutely nobody seems to acknowledge it and we have to tackle it at some point in order to move past this. Unfortunately, it will require these experts to "tell the truth" about the risks of covid instead of hyping every outlier all the time.
  - ryandrake 6y ago
    Nope, just a guy who sees on one hand a very small, but nonzero risk of dying of an easily preventable disease, and the tradeoff is... wait for it... wearing a mask over my face and avoiding being around people indoors. I know! Terrible! Such a dilemma! I really have to agonize about whether it's worth the enormous cost of wearing a little piece of cloth.
    - spookthesunset 6y ago
      The idea that covid is somehow a preventable disease is one of the more malicious bits of propaganda that’s been floating around. Is the flu a preventable disease too?
- floxy 6y ago
  >a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic people I thought asymptomatic transmission wasn't really a thing. Is there updated data on this? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w Here's the best thing I've found for incubation period: https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/10/8/e039652.full.pdf https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/10/8/e039652.full.pd...

ryandrake 6y ago

I don't know anyone who over-estimated their chances of dying, took precautions, and then regretted over-estimating, but I bet that close to 100% of the people who under-estimated their chances of dying regretted it on their death beds. Personally, I am not afraid to admit I am scared of a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic people, incubates for two weeks, then can kill you, but hey, I guess that just makes me a scaredy-cat. I'm willing to live with that label.

spookthesunset 6y ago
So are you the type I see blasting through red lights on your bicycle wearing a mask and no helmet? Are you the type of person I see who blindly steps out into a busy street to maintain "proper social distance" when somebody walks by you? Because risks are everywhere. Overestimating your risks from covid by 1000x results in making some really, really poor risk tradeoffs. People joke about dudes drinking bleach and stuff but that behavior was because they vastly overestimated their covid risks... so much so they completely disregarded the very real risks of... you know... drinking bleach. Much more serious examples of bad risk tradeoffs are how many parents are handling their kids. Some of the stuff people are doing to their poor children is downright deplorable. For example keeping them completely isolated from outside contact. All of it is because their perceptions of covid risks are incredibly wrong. The media and these "experts" have created a huge shadow pandemic of unchecked, irrational fear. Absolutely nobody seems to acknowledge it and we have to tackle it at some point in order to move past this. Unfortunately, it will require these experts to "tell the truth" about the risks of covid instead of hyping every outlier all the time.
- ryandrake 6y ago
  Nope, just a guy who sees on one hand a very small, but nonzero risk of dying of an easily preventable disease, and the tradeoff is... wait for it... wearing a mask over my face and avoiding being around people indoors. I know! Terrible! Such a dilemma! I really have to agonize about whether it's worth the enormous cost of wearing a little piece of cloth.
  - spookthesunset 6y ago
    The idea that covid is somehow a preventable disease is one of the more malicious bits of propaganda that’s been floating around. Is the flu a preventable disease too?
floxy 6y ago
>a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic people I thought asymptomatic transmission wasn't really a thing. Is there updated data on this? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w Here's the best thing I've found for incubation period: https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/10/8/e039652.full.pdf https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/10/8/e039652.full.pd...