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I agree completely. The only reason they used for shutting everything down at first was so hospitals don't get overrun. That's clearly not happening right now i

I agree completely. The only reason they used for shutting everything down at first was so hospitals don't get overrun. That's clearly not happening right now in most places. Also, it's not uncommon for the flu to cause hospitals to exceed capacity and we don't shut down for that.

Solvitieg 6y ago
This is what I found bizarre about NZ's approach. Their goals was 0 _cases_ in the entire country. It's a great accomplishment but perhaps unnecessary.
- laurencerowe 6y ago
  The big advantage of getting to zero is that after the initial severe lockdown life gets mostly back to normal.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    Almost zero. And normal only in the sense that many people don't care that much if very few people are allowed to enter the country.
  - choward 6y ago
    Not really. They still have outbreaks and do lockdowns. I wouldn't call that "mostly back to normal". https://apnews.com/article/new-zealand-coronavirus-pandemic-auckland-70a1da6f3471990b915552f81929c90b https://apnews.com/article/new-zealand-coronavirus-pandemic-...
    - tialaramex 6y ago
      That's true. They do have outbreaks, about half a dozen people this time, perhaps related to a job at a laundry working with quarantine facilities. For several days Auckland residents couldn't go to the pub. Normally of course they can go to the pub. Or a night club. Or a packed stadium to watch sports. But it's true that for several days last week in Auckland they weren't allowed to do that. And the same back in... September maybe? And according to you that isn't "mostly back to normal" so we can assume you believe it isn't "mostly back to normal" anywhere and never will be. That's just not a very useful benchmark.
- orra 6y ago
  It's pretty contagious, to be fair. Still, I think you're right when you say perhaps unnecessary: some countries have successfully suppressed COVID without eliminating it. That said, it's some but not many countries. I'm a bit ambivalent. Regardless, it certainly wasn't necessary for NZ to close their border to asylum seekers.
  - peterburkimsher 6y ago
    Edit: [removed]
    - orra 6y ago
      > Media are reporting that wealthy migrants are still being welcomed Ouch, that article links to one from May 2020. It said the Avatar film crews were allowed to fly in, whilst families were separated.
- statstutor 6y ago
  On an island nation with an 80%+ urban population, your choice is either to aim for 0 cases, or to expect unbounded cases and new more virulent mutations (for the whole world to deal with the consequences). This was predictable in advance, and with hindsight I still would prefer 0 cases.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  At 0 cases you can fully return back to "normal" life. If you have a small amount of cases, this will always grow exponentially without countermeasures.
- tialaramex 6y ago
  Because zero is magic. If you know your number of cases doubles every week when you aren't locked down, it seems as though it hardly matters what you do right? Five cases, six cases, ten cases, it's going to get out of control no matter. But if your base is zero then double that is still zero. That's why they've pursued elimination and why it has worked.
smileysteve 6y ago
> was so hospitals don't get overrun. That's clearly not happening right now in most places Citation needed. Up to 3 weeks ago, California, the Southeast were in field hospital territory. Anecdotally, Alabama hospitals have been in overflow since July. Georgia re-established a field hospital in January at their conference center [1] hospitalizations only stopped dropping beginning at the end of January [1]https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/georgia-world-congress-center-covid-19-reopening/85-fad744a8-27f8-4767-a100-28a290e57656 https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/geor...
- gjs278 6y ago
  cite yourself. california was not in field hospital territory, ever. there was a ship that was docked here to take excess patients and it took 77 total patients and the left. and considering half of the hospitals capacity were closed, they could have easily used that space.
- choward 6y ago
  That's why I said "in most places". And that article is from December. https://www.covid-georgia.com/today-in-georgia/hospitalizations/ https://www.covid-georgia.com/today-in-georgia/hospitalizati...
  - smileysteve 6y ago
    From December 22nd, for a hospital to be ready in 7 days.
  - smileysteve 6y ago
    In order for "most places" find a state that is close to their ordinary vacancy rates of 30%.
    - choward 6y ago
      Why? How is that relevant?
  - runako 6y ago

Solvitieg 6y ago

This is what I found bizarre about NZ's approach. Their goals was 0 _cases_ in the entire country. It's a great accomplishment but perhaps unnecessary.

laurencerowe 6y ago
The big advantage of getting to zero is that after the initial severe lockdown life gets mostly back to normal.
- ghaff 6y ago
  Almost zero. And normal only in the sense that many people don't care that much if very few people are allowed to enter the country.
- choward 6y ago
  Not really. They still have outbreaks and do lockdowns. I wouldn't call that "mostly back to normal". https://apnews.com/article/new-zealand-coronavirus-pandemic-auckland-70a1da6f3471990b915552f81929c90b https://apnews.com/article/new-zealand-coronavirus-pandemic-...
  - tialaramex 6y ago
    That's true. They do have outbreaks, about half a dozen people this time, perhaps related to a job at a laundry working with quarantine facilities. For several days Auckland residents couldn't go to the pub. Normally of course they can go to the pub. Or a night club. Or a packed stadium to watch sports. But it's true that for several days last week in Auckland they weren't allowed to do that. And the same back in... September maybe? And according to you that isn't "mostly back to normal" so we can assume you believe it isn't "mostly back to normal" anywhere and never will be. That's just not a very useful benchmark.
orra 6y ago
It's pretty contagious, to be fair. Still, I think you're right when you say perhaps unnecessary: some countries have successfully suppressed COVID without eliminating it. That said, it's some but not many countries. I'm a bit ambivalent. Regardless, it certainly wasn't necessary for NZ to close their border to asylum seekers.
- peterburkimsher 6y ago
  Edit: [removed]
  - orra 6y ago
    > Media are reporting that wealthy migrants are still being welcomed Ouch, that article links to one from May 2020. It said the Avatar film crews were allowed to fly in, whilst families were separated.
statstutor 6y ago
On an island nation with an 80%+ urban population, your choice is either to aim for 0 cases, or to expect unbounded cases and new more virulent mutations (for the whole world to deal with the consequences). This was predictable in advance, and with hindsight I still would prefer 0 cases.
_ph_ 6y ago
At 0 cases you can fully return back to "normal" life. If you have a small amount of cases, this will always grow exponentially without countermeasures.
tialaramex 6y ago
Because zero is magic. If you know your number of cases doubles every week when you aren't locked down, it seems as though it hardly matters what you do right? Five cases, six cases, ten cases, it's going to get out of control no matter. But if your base is zero then double that is still zero. That's why they've pursued elimination and why it has worked.

smileysteve 6y ago

> was so hospitals don't get overrun. That's clearly not happening right now in most places Citation needed. Up to 3 weeks ago, California, the Southeast were in field hospital territory. Anecdotally, Alabama hospitals have been in overflow since July. Georgia re-established a field hospital in January at their conference center [1] hospitalizations only stopped dropping beginning at the end of January [1]https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/georgia-world-congress-center-covid-19-reopening/85-fad744a8-27f8-4767-a100-28a290e57656 https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/geor...

gjs278 6y ago
cite yourself. california was not in field hospital territory, ever. there was a ship that was docked here to take excess patients and it took 77 total patients and the left. and considering half of the hospitals capacity were closed, they could have easily used that space.
choward 6y ago
That's why I said "in most places". And that article is from December. https://www.covid-georgia.com/today-in-georgia/hospitalizations/ https://www.covid-georgia.com/today-in-georgia/hospitalizati...
- smileysteve 6y ago
  From December 22nd, for a hospital to be ready in 7 days.
- smileysteve 6y ago
  In order for "most places" find a state that is close to their ordinary vacancy rates of 30%.
  - choward 6y ago
    Why? How is that relevant?
- runako 6y ago