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Pretty much all countries are distributing vaccine to the elderly / at-risk population first. We're doing that for the obvious reason that the most-at-risk popu

Pretty much all countries are distributing vaccine to the elderly / at-risk population first. We're doing that for the obvious reason that the most-at-risk population is most-at-risk, and thus most at risk of hospitalization. Concretely, that means hospitalization rates should decline a LOT faster than community spread. This is going to be less visible in countries that have their shit together and are able to vaccinate very fast / have already moved on to genpop, but in most of the EU (sigh), we've just finished vaccinating care homes and 75+. So now, a couple of weeks from now, we should see hospitalization numbers sharply decline because that share of the population represents the most hospitalizations, and will now be mostly immune. So despite being at like, 5% total vaccinated, we should see a decline in hospitalizations of up to 75%. Furthermore, given that most of the spread happens outside the most-at-risk in the first place (since those most at risk were those with the most protective measures before vaccines), 5% vaccinations should not mean 5% less cases total.

dragontamer 6y ago
The #1 group in the USA was not "at-risk" population, but doctors, nurses, and other front-line staff. The idea is that these groups are seeing many, many COVID19 patients and therefore have a big risk at spreading the virus around. Once this "Priority 1A" group was vaccinated, then age 75+ individuals were vaccinated in Priority 1B. Even then, Postal Office employees and Grocery Store workers (other "high impact" workers) are in the 1B and 1C prioritization queues. With efforts being to reopen schools, 1B also includes school-teachers (stop-the-spread focus). So a 21-year-old healthy school teacher is prioritized over a 67-year old obese person (despite the 67-year old's higher risk factors). --------- So at least in the USA: there's a significant effort being placed on high-impact "stop the spread" kind of vaccination effort. There is an element of "save lives", but stopping the spread also saves lives. So its a difficult calculus. (USA has some risk-factor prioritizations... 1B with 75+ age, and 1C with 65+ age + comorbidities like obesity. But again, Grocery Store workers are in 1C as well). I realize other countries have different priorities. But hey, I live in the USA so my understanding of things will have a USA-slant. These 1B / 1C things are also CDC recommended. Different states (like Texas) are more aggressively stop-the-spread than CDC guidelines (while other states may lean more towards risk-factor based "save lives / prevent hospitalizations"). 50-different states, 50+ different policies. Welcome to America.
- MR4D 6y ago
  Group 1C is pretty much "everyone". To take directly from the CDC [0], "Other essential workers, such as people who work in transportation and logistics, food service, housing construction and finance, information technology, communications, energy, law, media, public safety, and public health." Doesn't that cover pretty much everyone on HN ? [0] - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommend... ------ Second, shouldn't the focus be #1 - stop deaths; #2 - stop hospitalizations; #3 Stop the disease (which is what "spreading" actually is)
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > Group 1C is pretty much "everyone". No, it's not. It's “essential workers”, which isn't everyone in the listed sectors but people in the listed sectors whose work cannot effectively be done remotely; approximately, the people that were exempted and allowed to work on site during the strongest lockdowns, where they occurred at all. > Doesn't that cover pretty much everyone on HN ? Probably not; lots of people on HN are probably in jobs that can be and are being done remotely. Even if it did, “everyone on HN” and “everyone” aren't the same thing.
    - GloriousKoji 6y ago
      I disagree, "everyone" isn't too much of a hyperbole. The system is gamed and most of the "essential workers" aren't essential in the sense their work could be done fully remote. I work for a large corporation and we were all deemed essential workers. The employees shifts in office are rotated so that it's not a full capacity at any given time. I know a handful of other corporations doing the same thing. Outside of big corporate tech, I also know a bunch of people working 100% remote but already got vaccinated because they are an employee of pharmaceutical/medical company and qualify as health care workers. We can be pedantic on how a 1C essential worker isn't everyone but it is a huge percentage. Maybe my sample of people I know in the Bay Area is too small but at least half of my friends can classify as 1C. Edit: I found some slides from the CDC which totals the 1C estimate as 129M people. So my small local observation isn't that far off from what the CDC expects. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

dragontamer 6y ago

The #1 group in the USA was not "at-risk" population, but doctors, nurses, and other front-line staff. The idea is that these groups are seeing many, many COVID19 patients and therefore have a big risk at spreading the virus around. Once this "Priority 1A" group was vaccinated, then age 75+ individuals were vaccinated in Priority 1B. Even then, Postal Office employees and Grocery Store workers (other "high impact" workers) are in the 1B and 1C prioritization queues. With efforts being to reopen schools, 1B also includes school-teachers (stop-the-spread focus). So a 21-year-old healthy school teacher is prioritized over a 67-year old obese person (despite the 67-year old's higher risk factors). --------- So at least in the USA: there's a significant effort being placed on high-impact "stop the spread" kind of vaccination effort. There is an element of "save lives", but stopping the spread also saves lives. So its a difficult calculus. (USA has some risk-factor prioritizations... 1B with 75+ age, and 1C with 65+ age + comorbidities like obesity. But again, Grocery Store workers are in 1C as well). I realize other countries have different priorities. But hey, I live in the USA so my understanding of things will have a USA-slant. These 1B / 1C things are also CDC recommended. Different states (like Texas) are more aggressively stop-the-spread than CDC guidelines (while other states may lean more towards risk-factor based "save lives / prevent hospitalizations"). 50-different states, 50+ different policies. Welcome to America.

MR4D 6y ago
Group 1C is pretty much "everyone". To take directly from the CDC [0], "Other essential workers, such as people who work in transportation and logistics, food service, housing construction and finance, information technology, communications, energy, law, media, public safety, and public health." Doesn't that cover pretty much everyone on HN ? [0] - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommend... ------ Second, shouldn't the focus be #1 - stop deaths; #2 - stop hospitalizations; #3 Stop the disease (which is what "spreading" actually is)
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > Group 1C is pretty much "everyone". No, it's not. It's “essential workers”, which isn't everyone in the listed sectors but people in the listed sectors whose work cannot effectively be done remotely; approximately, the people that were exempted and allowed to work on site during the strongest lockdowns, where they occurred at all. > Doesn't that cover pretty much everyone on HN ? Probably not; lots of people on HN are probably in jobs that can be and are being done remotely. Even if it did, “everyone on HN” and “everyone” aren't the same thing.
  - GloriousKoji 6y ago
    I disagree, "everyone" isn't too much of a hyperbole. The system is gamed and most of the "essential workers" aren't essential in the sense their work could be done fully remote. I work for a large corporation and we were all deemed essential workers. The employees shifts in office are rotated so that it's not a full capacity at any given time. I know a handful of other corporations doing the same thing. Outside of big corporate tech, I also know a bunch of people working 100% remote but already got vaccinated because they are an employee of pharmaceutical/medical company and qualify as health care workers. We can be pedantic on how a 1C essential worker isn't everyone but it is a huge percentage. Maybe my sample of people I know in the Bay Area is too small but at least half of my friends can classify as 1C. Edit: I found some slides from the CDC which totals the 1C estimate as 129M people. So my small local observation isn't that far off from what the CDC expects. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...