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I give up. First it's hoax, then it's just a bad flu, then it's going to disappear like magic, then a second wave is impossible, then it's that vaccines aren't

by simonh 6y ago

I give up. First it's hoax, then it's just a bad flu, then it's going to disappear like magic, then a second wave is impossible, then it's that vaccines aren't necessary and don't work. Meanwhile, people die in their thousands per day and the death toll piles up and hospitals get over-run with dying patients. As for lockdowns, we know from analysis of the Spanish Flu epidemic that cities with successful lockdowns suffered less economically, because cities that didn't lock down had worse outbreaks that lead to longer lasting deeper economic damage. China had the mother of all lockdowns and is back to robust economic growth, and yes comparing the US or Europe to small island states makes no sense, but China isn't a small island state. You know what, I don't care. There's no vaccine required to be immune to facts. Whatever you claim to believe, when it's proved wrong and predictions based on it fail to happen you'll just come up with some other bullshit to believe instead. Whatever.

leesalminen 6y ago
> Spanish Flu epidemic Trying to compare now to >100 years ago is full of all kinds of bad assumptions. Life in 1918 hardly resembles life in 2020 in any discernible way. > China had the mother of all lockdowns and is back to robust economic growth Believing this means you have to trust information disseminated by the Chinese Communist Party, which would be a foolish thing to do. They are 100% committed to saving face, not to saving lives.
- simonh 6y ago
  It’s how it looked to the virus that really matters. Large urban populations, massive global movements of people, no vaccine. I think from an epidemiological point of view it really wasn’t all that different. Was it really all that different in terms of day to day economic contact either? Urban sprawl, shopping centres, industry, trains, trucks, telecommunications, global freight. Businesses losing workers and customers had basically the same problems. Sure the Chinese government can’t be trusted, but there are plenty of foreigners in China these days, including journalists. My wife is Chinese and we’re in almost daily contact with family over there. When it comes to general movements of the population and public or industrial policy these things come out eventually.
  - leesalminen 6y ago
    Do you really believe that journalists, of any nationality, in China feel free to express their honest take on this (or any) event that affects how people view the CCP?
    - simonh 6y ago
      Foreign Journalists come and go in China all the time, they’re not locked up in the country permanently. If what you say was true, direct first hand reporting of the Uighur situation would be impossible, yet even that happens. Do you think reporting on factory activity in Guangzhou is that much harder? China has incredibly vibrant industrial reporting, businesses running just in time supply chains and making investment decisions need accurate information. Your just making up excuses and I suspect you know it perfectly well. Well executed lockdowns with high compliance rates work. They did it, it happened and there’s plenty if other evidence too. There’s no refuge left for the lockdowns don’t work brigade except “Laa Laaa I’m not listening”. Where they don’t work it’s precisely because the lockdowns don’t work brigade won’t let them, with low compliance rates.
spookthesunset 6y ago
> Spanish Flu epidemic that cities with successful lockdowns suffered less economically You realize that during no time when the Spanish Flu was around did they lockdown for 11 months right? The lockdowns you are taking about there are small, localized events. Not huge ones that affected large regions and had year long durations. The only reason we were able to keep this lockdown afloat is because privileged people like you and me get to work from home and have zoom. Had Covid hit even two decades ago, we wouldn't be doing any of this at all. We'd have sucked it up and got on with our lives as best we could. > There's no vaccine required to be immune to facts. You are arguing morality, something which science can help guide but cannot dictate. Science doesn't tell us to lockdown for a year. Society does. Science might provide insight as to what effects a year long lockdown might have (hint: science hasn't a clue... we have no priors to this at all). Science cannot tell us to lockdown. It cannot even tell us to wear masks. That too is a values thing and is guided by what society values. Even if lockdowns worked and were proven so by a bunch of statistically valid random studies (which don't exist, by the way)... it is still upon a well informed society to decide if it is worth doing (note: I don't think most people are well informed about covid at all... the average person overestimates their risk of covid death by about 1000x).

by simonh 6y ago

leesalminen 6y ago

> Spanish Flu epidemic Trying to compare now to >100 years ago is full of all kinds of bad assumptions. Life in 1918 hardly resembles life in 2020 in any discernible way. > China had the mother of all lockdowns and is back to robust economic growth Believing this means you have to trust information disseminated by the Chinese Communist Party, which would be a foolish thing to do. They are 100% committed to saving face, not to saving lives.

simonh 6y ago
It’s how it looked to the virus that really matters. Large urban populations, massive global movements of people, no vaccine. I think from an epidemiological point of view it really wasn’t all that different. Was it really all that different in terms of day to day economic contact either? Urban sprawl, shopping centres, industry, trains, trucks, telecommunications, global freight. Businesses losing workers and customers had basically the same problems. Sure the Chinese government can’t be trusted, but there are plenty of foreigners in China these days, including journalists. My wife is Chinese and we’re in almost daily contact with family over there. When it comes to general movements of the population and public or industrial policy these things come out eventually.
- leesalminen 6y ago
  Do you really believe that journalists, of any nationality, in China feel free to express their honest take on this (or any) event that affects how people view the CCP?
  - simonh 6y ago
    Foreign Journalists come and go in China all the time, they’re not locked up in the country permanently. If what you say was true, direct first hand reporting of the Uighur situation would be impossible, yet even that happens. Do you think reporting on factory activity in Guangzhou is that much harder? China has incredibly vibrant industrial reporting, businesses running just in time supply chains and making investment decisions need accurate information. Your just making up excuses and I suspect you know it perfectly well. Well executed lockdowns with high compliance rates work. They did it, it happened and there’s plenty if other evidence too. There’s no refuge left for the lockdowns don’t work brigade except “Laa Laaa I’m not listening”. Where they don’t work it’s precisely because the lockdowns don’t work brigade won’t let them, with low compliance rates.

spookthesunset 6y ago

> Spanish Flu epidemic that cities with successful lockdowns suffered less economically You realize that during no time when the Spanish Flu was around did they lockdown for 11 months right? The lockdowns you are taking about there are small, localized events. Not huge ones that affected large regions and had year long durations. The only reason we were able to keep this lockdown afloat is because privileged people like you and me get to work from home and have zoom. Had Covid hit even two decades ago, we wouldn't be doing any of this at all. We'd have sucked it up and got on with our lives as best we could. > There's no vaccine required to be immune to facts. You are arguing morality, something which science can help guide but cannot dictate. Science doesn't tell us to lockdown for a year. Society does. Science might provide insight as to what effects a year long lockdown might have (hint: science hasn't a clue... we have no priors to this at all). Science cannot tell us to lockdown. It cannot even tell us to wear masks. That too is a values thing and is guided by what society values. Even if lockdowns worked and were proven so by a bunch of statistically valid random studies (which don't exist, by the way)... it is still upon a well informed society to decide if it is worth doing (note: I don't think most people are well informed about covid at all... the average person overestimates their risk of covid death by about 1000x).