The assumed prevalence rate (infections/cases) seems really high. Youyang Gu's modeling assumes more like 1 in 3.5 caught implying a 2x lower infection rate and

The assumed prevalence rate (infections/cases) seems really high. Youyang Gu's modeling assumes more like 1 in 3.5 caught implying a 2x lower infection rate and thus a lot further from herd immunity (https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/ https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/) Gu's modeling also seems much more consistent with numbers I've seen from other papers (hospitalization and death rates). This reads just bizarrely. The author assumes we'd be near the expected herd immunity threshold (60%) in the face of extensive social distancing? We certainly are at herd immunity in a world with interventions, but those drastically lower the base reproductive number.