> The first broad point: infections are decreasing. > I suspect that this might not always be because we are reaching "herd immunity". It could just be a side

> The first broad point: infections are decreasing. > I suspect that this might not always be because we are reaching "herd immunity". It could just be a side effect of stats. Also Vaccines in the USA will target the people who are likely to get tested. I think the decrease of infections is more a regression to a mean -- we were seeing spikes in infection rates over the holidays (and starting a little earlier in the US, because of when we celebrate Thanksgiving) as people decided to meet friends and family indoors and unmasked. Now that the source of the spike is behind us and most cases that were part of that spike have recovered, the weekly caseload is dropping back to where it was in October and early November. https://images.ctfassets.net/o2ll9t4ee8tq/5lcVQMPbqeYblRqbqezt3H/c9ec8f38807847c10b70bf7547f64b17/image10.png https://images.ctfassets.net/o2ll9t4ee8tq/5lcVQMPbqeYblRqbqe... (image from the COVID Tracking Project -- https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/more-good-news-this-week-covid-19-data-feb-18 https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/more-good-news-th...)