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Is there a good prediction market for inflation? Or is that just gold or bitcoin?
by mcculley 6y ago
Is there a good prediction market for inflation? Or is that just gold or bitcoin?
- Majromax 6y agoYes: the bond market. Take a long position in real return (inflation-adjusted) bonds like TIPS, and go short in nominal bonds. You will profit from an increase in inflation / expected inflation. Based on 10-year bonds, the current breakeven inflation rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE) is about 2.2%.