3 ms·
> The bit I’m trying to reason through is how much of the total $1 trillion market cap can actually be sold at once. I'm not sure if there is such a measure.
by auganov 6y ago
> The bit I’m trying to reason through is how much of the total $1 trillion market cap can actually be sold at once.
I'm not sure if there is such a measure.
Let's say a stock has an indisputable dollar book value [0] value of $100 / share and nothing weird is going on. You'd expect liquidity to approach infinity as the price drops below $100. Past flows wouldn't matter at all here.
If we operate under the assumption (which is a big assumption) that Bitcoin is fundamentally worthless and only traded by retail then perhaps some multiple of total cash balances at exchanges would be a good estimate of maximum liquidation value. While aggregate order books would be the minimum.
I'm not sure how many Bitcoins are actively changing hands. Seeing widely different estimates (from 15% to 85%) for this. If this percentage is really low then it would seem perfectly plausible to me that there isn't enough cash to handle a big sell off.
[0] Seems like you assume money made by miners is some equivalent of that for Bitcoin? But not sure why that would be the case. I have a hard time seeing how there is any price point for Bitcoin at which you can know for a fact you cannot lose money buying it. Also, if I bought all the Bitcoins, wouldn't the value be effectively zero?