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> "The data doesn't show that. There is a slim margin that might suggest fatalities are dropping, but not by much." It takes longer for fatalities to drop beca

> "The data doesn't show that. There is a slim margin that might suggest fatalities are dropping, but not by much." It takes longer for fatalities to drop because typically, there is several weeks between infection and death, and a further delay before deaths get reported. There is also a delay (weeks) between receiving a vaccine dose and achieving maximum immunity. Death rates have also dropped fastest in the groups (such as over-80s) who were vaccinated first: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n506 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n506 > "February was the coldest month for a long time in the UK. Epic rain, frost and snow. People have been stuck inside." Yes, we had a couple of weeks of unusually cold weather. But it's much warmer now, and currently, that's forecast to continue.

KaiserPro 6y ago
> dropping more sharply than the infection rate. I know this might seem petty, but its really important to split out the effect of lockdown vs vaccinations. If the drop in hospital admissions is down to vaccinations, we'd expect to see a decrease in those in the top 4 groups that have been vaccinated, but a no decrease in other groups (like in Israel) In the case of the UK when the general background is decreasing infections we should see a marked difference in steepness between both groups. Now, as you rightly point out, there is normally a 4-6week lag between infection and hospital admission (this has been getting longer with improved at home monitoring). Deaths for the over 70's not so much. They are more likely to palliated, rather than put on a vent. I am not a vaccine skeptic, I look forward to getting mine and going back into a physical office. I just want to make sure that we prove things with the data we _have_ rather than try and back fill insignificant margins with meanings they can't support. The UK is a beacon of vaccination, I want it to be robust, rather than bluster.

KaiserPro 6y ago

> dropping more sharply than the infection rate. I know this might seem petty, but its really important to split out the effect of lockdown vs vaccinations. If the drop in hospital admissions is down to vaccinations, we'd expect to see a decrease in those in the top 4 groups that have been vaccinated, but a no decrease in other groups (like in Israel) In the case of the UK when the general background is decreasing infections we should see a marked difference in steepness between both groups. Now, as you rightly point out, there is normally a 4-6week lag between infection and hospital admission (this has been getting longer with improved at home monitoring). Deaths for the over 70's not so much. They are more likely to palliated, rather than put on a vent. I am not a vaccine skeptic, I look forward to getting mine and going back into a physical office. I just want to make sure that we prove things with the data we _have_ rather than try and back fill insignificant margins with meanings they can't support. The UK is a beacon of vaccination, I want it to be robust, rather than bluster.