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> But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Why would "natural immunity" kick in this suddenl
by tom_mellior 6y ago
> But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity.
Why would "natural immunity" kick in this suddenly and effectively?
> Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March.
Yes, and then after the holidays they stayed home, so one or two weeks after the traveling seasons there were much fewer infections. I don't see why this explanation is dismissed.
Anyway, it's not so long until April, so we'll see soon if "Covid will be mostly gone by April". ("By" appears vague, but my understanding is that refers more to "at the beginning of April" rather than "at the end of April", could Americans confirm?) Of course even if it does disappear as suddenly as this person predicts, we might not be able to tell whether it was due to vaccination.
- GhostVII 6y agoAlso we saw the post-christmas drop in multiple countries and pretty much every state, so it would have to be a pretty crazy coincidence for everyone to have gotten herd immunity at the same time.
- chasd00 6y agoyes, "Covid will be mostly gone by April" would mean the beginning April. However, if it's not gone, you can assume the response will be "oh i meant by the end of April".
- Zimahl 6y agoYou have to love those moving goalposts.
- jwlake 6y ago2 weeks to bend the curve!
- jessaustin 6y agoThe goalposts were installed on a speeding train early last year.
- tom_mellior 6y agoThanks. And yeah, "mostly gone" also offers a lot of wiggle room.
- QuercusMax 6y agoAmerican here: "By April" is perhaps intentionally vague, as it's such a long period of time. "This will be done by Monday" tells me not to expect it before end-of-day Monday.