2 ms·
He also uses a fairly low estimate of IFR: > Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has
by saalweachter 6y ago
He also uses a fairly low estimate of IFR:
> Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.
I usually see numbers like 0.5-0.6% bandied around for the US, which changes the deaths-IFR estimate to 1/4-1/3 of the country having been infected, rather than 2/3.
- addicted 6y agoEven if he is correct about the IFR the conclusion he draws is completely wrong. The 0.23 IFR would only be the current IFR. In the real world, the vast majority of the 0.15 % of the population died when the IFR was significantly higher, either due to the initial lack of understanding about the virus such as during the beginning of the pandemic, or due to the fact that even after we had a better understanding the majority of deaths across the country happened under situations where the IFR was higher due to hospitals being overloaded.
- saalweachter 6y agoAlso, even if we assume the good doctor is correct about the IFR, any time you try to posit the infection is much more wide-spread than experts believe, to get a lower iFR, you're also implicitly saying that you think the disease is much more virulent, which means the "herd immunity" thresholds are higher.