3 ms·

Part of my current out of my butt theory why cases are going down is all the dummy's have partial herd immunity. The reasoning is simple. If you listen to what

Part of my current out of my butt theory why cases are going down is all the dummy's have partial herd immunity. The reasoning is simple. If you listen to what people that actually know what they are talking about they say in the US total cases are about 20%. Lets consider Gallant. Gallant does all the things to stay safe. Is the infection rate among Gallants 20%? Hell no. It's probably a 1/3 that or 6-7%. Consider Goofus. Goofus is a dummy. He does nothing to protect himself. And hangs out with other Goofus's. Is the infection rate among Goofus's 20%? No, it's probably 3-4 times higher. Or 60-80%. 60-80% means the Goofus's have herd immunity. 6-7% infection rate means Gallants don't.

parrellel 6y ago
The "stupid people" demographic reaching saturation and there being a depression in transmission as a result does make a lot of sense just from observed behavior. Then we'd expect the next surge when people start to relax safety measures.
- Gibbon1 6y ago
  Collections of goofus's are likely important because covid tends to burn out without super spreading events. One can imagine that the collections of dummies that continued to hold large gatherings would have even higher infection rates. Highlights an issue with a lot of thinking about this. Population profiles aren't homogeneous but people make that assumption when drawing conclusions from simple statistics.