4 ms·

While I'd love to believe that herd immunity is almost here or the vaccine is effectively stopping the spread already, I think the biggest reason for the drop i

by Urgo 6y ago

While I'd love to believe that herd immunity is almost here or the vaccine is effectively stopping the spread already, I think the biggest reason for the drop in new cases as well as the drop in active cases can be summed up in a single word. Christmas. Or more broadly the holiday season. It's absolutely true that new cases are dropping and active cases are dropping as well but if you look at active cases everything peaked about a month after Christmas to the end of Jan before starting to decline this month. Easter is coming up on April 4th. If enough people have the vaccine + enough people have gotten it to cause herd immunity then active cases will continue to drop throughout March and April. But if the holidays are the main cause for this to spread (as in people ignore the "rules" and intermingle with non-household members as the holidays encourage) I predict another wave in April. The wave hopefully will at least be less severe then the Christmas wave was, but I do think the planet isn't out of the water yet.

bobthepanda 6y ago
At least in the US St. Patrick’s Day would be the obvious next bar crawly, hangout type event, before Easter.
burnthrow 6y ago
What I love about the news right now is that they've perfected the alchemy of turning every holiday into its own news cycle. Gatherings feared... Experts fear another spike. No proof at all that holiday -> virulence, of course. You should try turning off the news for a bit.
- ncallaway 6y ago
  What we do have is proof that increased gatherings lead to increased transmission. We have, I think, a pretty reasonable assumption that holidays lead to increased gatherings. So, a cautious assumption until data shows it's not accurate that "holidays lead to increased transmission" seems to me to be warranted. Have you seen data that shows holidays don't lead to increased transmission?
  - thehappypm 6y ago
    The upward curve started well before Thanksgiving -- really around October 1 we started seeing the summer flatness yield to an upward curve, it was steepest in November, peaking around mid-January. If the holidays were end of November through December, wouldn't the spike have started around December 1?
    - ncallaway 6y ago
      That is not evidence that holidays do not lead to increased transmission. It is evidence that other things can also lead to increased transmission. If my hypothesis were "ONLY holidays can lead to increase transmission", then that evidence would falsify it. But my hypothesis is that "holidays can lead to increased transmission", so that evidence doesn't falsify it.
      - thehappypm 6y ago
        It's hard to prove a negative, for sure. I just don't really see the data that shows the holidays had much effect. There was already a hard bend upwards well before the holidays started. It's certainly possible that the holidays made it worse and the peak ended higher than it needed to, but they certainly didn't create the winter spike.
    - y-c-o-m-b 6y ago
      The upward curve can be attributed to many things and all of it conjecture until it's proven, but the FACT is increased gathering = increased transmission. There's no getting around that fact no matter where you point the finger. It's literally how this turned into a pandemic. Therefor logic is weighted towards holidays (increased gathering) leading to increased transmission. The upward curve can be a result of school openings and then the sudden steep upward trajectory in the beginning of November being due to Halloween followed by continued Holiday visitation throughout Nov/Dec. There's also the messaging from the Trump administration that encouraged masses of people to ignore rules and treat the virus as if it's "no worse than the flu". Similarly the reduction in cases can - speculatively - be attributed to better protocols being implemented nationwide; e.g. states that had lax rules having an "oh shit" moment when hospital capacities were at maximum which in turn resulted in stricter measures. Better mitigation strategies in schools across the nation is another reason. Trump's election drama diverted attention away from the "covid = hoax", so people were more willing to accept stricter rules. Lastly - and this is something that can't really be proven so take it with a grain of salt - people are avoiding testing in order to drive down rates so the schools can fully re-open. I think we might be able to see hints of this last one in hospitalization data if those numbers remain the same while the case numbers drop. EDIT: https://covidtracking.com/data https://covidtracking.com/data shows hospitalizations are also dropping (although deaths only started dropping recently), so I would say that last reason for cases dropping is bullshit concocted on social media, but I'm going to leave it on this post so others can call it out as BS when they see it elsewhere
worker767424 6y ago
This doesn't explain why new cases started surging in early November, unless you want to put that on Halloween. Even then, new infections where rising all of October. I'd also argue there weren't clear post-holiday surges beyond people delaying tests.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  I don't mean to compare it to herd immunity, but I wonder how much impact there is from people with situations, behaviors and decision making strategies that tend to lead to infection getting immunity. Essentially, is there enough bias in transmission for some people to make a greater contribution to group immunity than others.
spookthesunset 6y ago
Attributing the rise and fall of it to "christmas", "super bowl", "sturgous rally" or "beachgoers" is a fools errand. It's a monument to the arrogance of humankind. I think future civilizations are going to study this period and laugh at how foolish and naive we are thinking we have any kind of real control over this virus. The idea that outside pharmaceutical interventions mankind can somehow control a respiratory virus will be mocked by future generations the same way we mock past civilizations that sacrificed goats to appease the rain gods. The truth is the virus is gonna do what virus do: Virus. It's just part of mother nature and we don't really have any say over its behavior. Outside vaccines and treatments we can control it just about as much we can control earthquakes, tornadoes or volcanos.
- bspammer 6y ago
  New Zealand has had the virus under control without pharmaceutical help for 9 months now. Many East Asian countries are doing totally fine, with extremely low case numbers and local quarantines for outbreaks. The difference is pure culture: individualism vs collectivism. In China, not wearing a mask in public makes you a pariah. There’s no such social pressure here in the west.
  - ryandrake 6y ago
    Not only was there no social pressure to do the right thing in the West, but there was widespread politically-charged COVID denial and downplaying, and hand-wringing about the "costs" of taking even modest steps to reduce transmission. We never really had a chance, with the amount of people actively flaunting public health guidance, downplaying the disease (just the flu, bro) and trying to sabotage efforts to contain it. Once the disease got politicized, it was game over. One side took it seriously, therefore the other side had to not take it seriously, because heaven forbid you agree with your political opponent about something.

by Urgo 6y ago

bobthepanda 6y ago

At least in the US St. Patrick’s Day would be the obvious next bar crawly, hangout type event, before Easter.

burnthrow 6y ago

What I love about the news right now is that they've perfected the alchemy of turning every holiday into its own news cycle. Gatherings feared... Experts fear another spike. No proof at all that holiday -> virulence, of course. You should try turning off the news for a bit.

ncallaway 6y ago
What we do have is proof that increased gatherings lead to increased transmission. We have, I think, a pretty reasonable assumption that holidays lead to increased gatherings. So, a cautious assumption until data shows it's not accurate that "holidays lead to increased transmission" seems to me to be warranted. Have you seen data that shows holidays don't lead to increased transmission?
- thehappypm 6y ago
  The upward curve started well before Thanksgiving -- really around October 1 we started seeing the summer flatness yield to an upward curve, it was steepest in November, peaking around mid-January. If the holidays were end of November through December, wouldn't the spike have started around December 1?
  - ncallaway 6y ago
    That is not evidence that holidays do not lead to increased transmission. It is evidence that other things can also lead to increased transmission. If my hypothesis were "ONLY holidays can lead to increase transmission", then that evidence would falsify it. But my hypothesis is that "holidays can lead to increased transmission", so that evidence doesn't falsify it.
    - thehappypm 6y ago
      It's hard to prove a negative, for sure. I just don't really see the data that shows the holidays had much effect. There was already a hard bend upwards well before the holidays started. It's certainly possible that the holidays made it worse and the peak ended higher than it needed to, but they certainly didn't create the winter spike.
  - y-c-o-m-b 6y ago
    The upward curve can be attributed to many things and all of it conjecture until it's proven, but the FACT is increased gathering = increased transmission. There's no getting around that fact no matter where you point the finger. It's literally how this turned into a pandemic. Therefor logic is weighted towards holidays (increased gathering) leading to increased transmission. The upward curve can be a result of school openings and then the sudden steep upward trajectory in the beginning of November being due to Halloween followed by continued Holiday visitation throughout Nov/Dec. There's also the messaging from the Trump administration that encouraged masses of people to ignore rules and treat the virus as if it's "no worse than the flu". Similarly the reduction in cases can - speculatively - be attributed to better protocols being implemented nationwide; e.g. states that had lax rules having an "oh shit" moment when hospital capacities were at maximum which in turn resulted in stricter measures. Better mitigation strategies in schools across the nation is another reason. Trump's election drama diverted attention away from the "covid = hoax", so people were more willing to accept stricter rules. Lastly - and this is something that can't really be proven so take it with a grain of salt - people are avoiding testing in order to drive down rates so the schools can fully re-open. I think we might be able to see hints of this last one in hospitalization data if those numbers remain the same while the case numbers drop. EDIT: https://covidtracking.com/data https://covidtracking.com/data shows hospitalizations are also dropping (although deaths only started dropping recently), so I would say that last reason for cases dropping is bullshit concocted on social media, but I'm going to leave it on this post so others can call it out as BS when they see it elsewhere

worker767424 6y ago

This doesn't explain why new cases started surging in early November, unless you want to put that on Halloween. Even then, new infections where rising all of October. I'd also argue there weren't clear post-holiday surges beyond people delaying tests.

maxerickson 6y ago
I don't mean to compare it to herd immunity, but I wonder how much impact there is from people with situations, behaviors and decision making strategies that tend to lead to infection getting immunity. Essentially, is there enough bias in transmission for some people to make a greater contribution to group immunity than others.

spookthesunset 6y ago

Attributing the rise and fall of it to "christmas", "super bowl", "sturgous rally" or "beachgoers" is a fools errand. It's a monument to the arrogance of humankind. I think future civilizations are going to study this period and laugh at how foolish and naive we are thinking we have any kind of real control over this virus. The idea that outside pharmaceutical interventions mankind can somehow control a respiratory virus will be mocked by future generations the same way we mock past civilizations that sacrificed goats to appease the rain gods. The truth is the virus is gonna do what virus do: Virus. It's just part of mother nature and we don't really have any say over its behavior. Outside vaccines and treatments we can control it just about as much we can control earthquakes, tornadoes or volcanos.

bspammer 6y ago
New Zealand has had the virus under control without pharmaceutical help for 9 months now. Many East Asian countries are doing totally fine, with extremely low case numbers and local quarantines for outbreaks. The difference is pure culture: individualism vs collectivism. In China, not wearing a mask in public makes you a pariah. There’s no such social pressure here in the west.
- ryandrake 6y ago
  Not only was there no social pressure to do the right thing in the West, but there was widespread politically-charged COVID denial and downplaying, and hand-wringing about the "costs" of taking even modest steps to reduce transmission. We never really had a chance, with the amount of people actively flaunting public health guidance, downplaying the disease (just the flu, bro) and trying to sabotage efforts to contain it. Once the disease got politicized, it was game over. One side took it seriously, therefore the other side had to not take it seriously, because heaven forbid you agree with your political opponent about something.