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Around the time of the late 1990s Internet bubble, I read someone's observation that you can identify an investment bubble when barbers and nurses and taxi driv
by tkgally 6y ago
Around the time of the late 1990s Internet bubble, I read someone's observation that you can identify an investment bubble when barbers and nurses and taxi drivers start investing on the assumption that prices will just keep going up. That matched my own experience of having lived through the stock and real-estate bubble in Japan in the late 1980s: I knew shopkeepers and rice farmers who borrowed money to buy stock and land and condominiums, certain that their value would continue rising. The American real-estate bubble that led up to the 2008 crash looked very similar, as does Bitcoin now. It seems certain to collapse, though I can’t predict when.
- atwebb 6y agoSounds like the Ford story: The fable about Henry Ford has rarely been as apposite as now. During an American recession, the shoeshine boy on the sidewalk gave Ford some tips on the stock market. Ford's response: "When the shoeshine boy is telling you what to buy, it's time to sell!" For what it's worth the first hit I got searching for it was from January 2008...
- tkgally 6y agoYes, the shoeshine boy! That was the story I read. Probably it was in 2008, too. Thanks for the clarification.
- mtalantikite 6y agoI’ve also heard it attributed to Joe Kennedy, who supposedly went on to short the market as the Great Depression was about to hit.
- cafard 6y agoThe version I heard had Joseph Kennedy.