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> I think this was a valid mindset last March when we had little trusted data Ordinary people had little trusted data. Experts had data from cruise ships show
by 1experience 6y ago
> I think this was a valid mindset last March when we had little trusted data
Ordinary people had little trusted data.
Experts had data from cruise ships showing a low infection fatality rate [1], data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2], data showing that the average Covid victim is 80 years old and has three comorbidities[3].
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w
[2] https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1 https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/...
[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...
- belltaco 6y ago>data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2] Asympomaticity or pre-symptomacity? >Experts had data from cruise ships showing a low infection fatality rate [1], data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2], data showing that the average Covid victim is 80 years old and has three comorbidities[3]. Yet Italy had crowded ICUs and Sweden had to beg neighboring countries to take some ICU patients from them. It'd have been all much much worse without lockdown. Your CFR assumes good critical care.