3 ms·

I think this was a valid mindset last March when we had little trusted data, limited mitigation strategies, few treatments, and no vaccines. A year later, to

I think this was a valid mindset last March when we had little trusted data, limited mitigation strategies, few treatments, and no vaccines. A year later, to have all those things and follow the same policies implies we either a) nailed it from the start or b) are not applying what we've learned. One of those is unlikely and the other unacceptable.

1experience 6y ago
> I think this was a valid mindset last March when we had little trusted data Ordinary people had little trusted data. Experts had data from cruise ships showing a low infection fatality rate [1], data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2], data showing that the average Covid victim is 80 years old and has three comorbidities[3]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w [2] https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1 https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...
- belltaco 6y ago
  >data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2] Asympomaticity or pre-symptomacity? >Experts had data from cruise ships showing a low infection fatality rate [1], data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2], data showing that the average Covid victim is 80 years old and has three comorbidities[3]. Yet Italy had crowded ICUs and Sweden had to beg neighboring countries to take some ICU patients from them. It'd have been all much much worse without lockdown. Your CFR assumes good critical care.
lefrenchy 6y ago
I’m not sure the US has been applying what we’ve learned, if we’ve learned anything at all. There’s no follow through on restrictions, people have been travelling and partying, etc... Hospitals are still overwhelmed in some cities, health care workers are tired and over-worked, etc... There isn’t enough political capital to end the pandemic or to provide meaningful economic support, so we’re left picking up the pieces of both at the same time.

1experience 6y ago

> I think this was a valid mindset last March when we had little trusted data Ordinary people had little trusted data. Experts had data from cruise ships showing a low infection fatality rate [1], data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2], data showing that the average Covid victim is 80 years old and has three comorbidities[3]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w [2] https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1 https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...

belltaco 6y ago
>data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2] Asympomaticity or pre-symptomacity? >Experts had data from cruise ships showing a low infection fatality rate [1], data from the first quarantined cities in Italy showing 60% of asymptomaticity[2], data showing that the average Covid victim is 80 years old and has three comorbidities[3]. Yet Italy had crowded ICUs and Sweden had to beg neighboring countries to take some ICU patients from them. It'd have been all much much worse without lockdown. Your CFR assumes good critical care.

lefrenchy 6y ago

I’m not sure the US has been applying what we’ve learned, if we’ve learned anything at all. There’s no follow through on restrictions, people have been travelling and partying, etc... Hospitals are still overwhelmed in some cities, health care workers are tired and over-worked, etc... There isn’t enough political capital to end the pandemic or to provide meaningful economic support, so we’re left picking up the pieces of both at the same time.