4 ms·

It seems like with the possible exception of Asian countries, the variation in pandemic outcomes is pretty close to random. No western country has implemented a

by creato 6y ago

It seems like with the possible exception of Asian countries, the variation in pandemic outcomes is pretty close to random. No western country has implemented any policy consistently enough to learn from it. How many times have we some region held up as a success story only to be the epicenter 2 months later?

tmnvix 6y ago
I feel like the various policies have been consistently applied here in NZ.
- AndrewBissell 6y ago
  Island countries are a special case. Hawaii has similarly been able to keep cases down to a small handful, at the cost of tanking the tourist economy on which the state depends. To achieve the same level of screening in a country with large land borders like Germany would require truly draconian travel and trade restrictions.
  - markdown 6y ago
    A border is a border. You need permission to get across a border. It's not more draconian to restrict cross-border movement in Germany than it is in New Zealand, Fiji, or Mali.
    - Arainach 6y ago
      Hawaii and New Zealand have a fixed number of points of entry - airports for the most part, as well as a very few select ports (not that those are a major concern with recreational cruises shut down globally). Land borders are continuous with far more access points (spreading any testing or resources thin) and much more traffic due to lower cost and easier access.
      - markdown 6y ago
        Surely you jest? Does Germany not have an army? It's one of the wealthiest countries in the world. They can definitely show down the borders any time they want. See this from a year ago: https://www.gov.si/en/news/2020-03-20-germany-limits-the-number-of-open-border-crossing-points/ https://www.gov.si/en/news/2020-03-20-germany-limits-the-num... > and much more traffic due to lower cost and easier access The traffic only exists while there is a high chance that people can cross the border. Close the borders for everything but cargo, and there will be much less traffic. People will make up all sorts of excuses, but in fact anything is possible if you take the risk seriously enough. I mean if COVID killed everyone it infected instantly and turned them into zombies, how soon would you see every way into Germany guarded?
        zwaps 6y ago
        I generally think more can be done. But your post is simplifying much. Every way into German is literally all of it, except small parts in the North which are sea. Germany is all land border, essentially. Too much to control with any army. Ask Americans how that wall with Mexico is going. Like that. Also, when Europeans speak of border posts, they mean some scanners on otherwise open highways. However, this doesn't mean that there's some sort of restriction outside of these border posts. Shutting them down doesn't mean anything is closed or whatever. You can cross into Germany literally anywhere. There are no borders, not in the way that you think. When I was on the wrong side of the Dutch border soon before a local lockdown during a shooting, but was in a hurry, I just went through a village road. Heck, there's even towns that practically cross borders. How are you going to control every street? Right now, borders to several countries ARE closed. Does it stop most people coming to Germany? Nope. There are also political considerations that are too complex to discuss here. Livelihoods across borders depend on coming to Germany, as well as a lot of pan-EU traffic. An overreach is likely shut down by courts, in the worst case by an EU court, which opens a new can of worms. It's not as easy as you think.
        markdown 6y ago
        Thank you. I appreciate the correction.
    - read_if_gay_ 6y ago
      If you live near a land border it’s not unlikely that some of your friends or family are on the other side of it. No such thing in Hawaii.
  - olliej 6y ago
    Australia got it under control, and when they had surges in some states but not others they limited interstate travel until the overrun states got it under control. The US and Europe could have done this. England could have done this. They chose not to and exchanged a month of pain for a year of pain and 100s of thousands of deaths.
    - zwaps 6y ago
      Germany is probably the least comparable country here. It's smack dab in the center of Europe, has a population density of an entirely different magnitude, and is - most importantly - surrounded by some countries that do not take Covid seriously for whatever reason, and it can not easily close the border, which also doesn't physically exists anymore, because it is a huge political thing on multiple levels from local to EU. Germany is more locked-down internally (like Australia and NZ) than it is on its outside borders. Is it a mess? Yes. Should it be done better? Yes. But honestly, if Germany was an Island, it would be doing just as good as Australia and NZ. It locked down internal travel several times, had one of the best contact tracing when it was still possible, and generally just got outplayed by new strains swamping through land borders that neither NZ nor Australia even have.
    - aksss 6y ago
      > US could have done this No, absent martial law being imposed by the feds, this was never an option. The US federal government is not legally able to do the same things that unitary nations like South Korea and Australia can do on a whim. States delegated certain limited powers to the feds at inception, and reserve many, while affirmatively proscribing the federal government from doing specific things. States in the US are not simply local administrative bodies, they are essentially mini-nations that have out-sourced certain shared services. I’m speaking generally of course but that’s a better way to understand civics in the US vs some other (most?) countries. As a consequence of this system, states bear a lot of responsibility for their own policies. What do you think the tolerance would have been (or still is) for Joe Biden, much less Trump, declaring martial law? About zero, I’d suspect.
      - boatmansloth 6y ago
  - obtino 6y ago
    UK is an island as well. It's not a special case then?
    - zwily 6y ago
      UK didn’t immediately lock all borders tight.
    - d_theorist 6y ago
      UK has 10x the population and is a global hub.
  - raymondh 6y ago
    Hawaii has been open to tourists for a while and it is working out well. Every new arrival has to have a negative coronavirus test and must enable contact tracing software for the duration of their stay. Restaurants and whale watching excursions are limited to a fraction of the original capacity, but they are open. People wear masks on the beach but not in the water. Mostly, it feels pretty safe. The daily case counts in Maui over the past few days could be counted on your fingers.
    - aksss 6y ago
      I think the point of being in Hawaii is to be outside, with predictable steady breeze and lots of UV. Parts of Germany (and many other places in world) are quite a different environment (predominantly indoor with recirculated air and little sunlight. Sigh. Why do we live this way, raymond?) Also, Kauai did go on lockdown forcing every arrival to quarantine for 14 days regardless of testing status after they had a local COVID death. That policy was in early December, but I think they’re back on the general state plan now.
      - AndrewBissell 6y ago
        Kauai requires a negative Covid test to pass a phalanx of National Guardsmen when you enter, plus a 3 day stay in a bubble resort at the end of which you must test negative again to leave quarantine. During my recent stay at one bubble resort the rules were quite lax and it was easy to mingle with people who were not under quarantine. Contra the parent, it is definitely not the case that people are wearing masks on the beach (nor should they), although they are generally still required in all other indoor situations except restaurants. I think you are right that outdoor settings and ample sunlight are important factors in Hawaii. Conditions are still dire for the tourist industry even after things have opened back up a little bit. Just today I saw a headline in a local Kauai paper about small business owners organizing a meeting to agitate for loosening some more restrictions to help keep them afloat.
- pfundstein 6y ago
  Australia's state leaders have been steadfast in their handling of the pandemic despite the Federal Government initially fighting the states' swift and strict response.
- dbtc 6y ago
  Some things we can all learn from NZ: * respond quickly * remain consistent * be an island with <6 million people
  - shalmanese 6y ago
    What can we learn from Vietnam?
- ojhughes 6y ago
  But what’s the exit strategy for NZ? Unless borders remain closed indefinitely I can’t see zero COVID to be maintainable in the long term.
markdown 6y ago
If you're using "western" to mean predominantly white, then what about New Zealand?
- rglullis 6y ago
  Not densely populated, and an island.
- yesenadam 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world (A fascinating article.)
  - markdown 6y ago
    Fascinating indeed, but shows that I was right to ask. Apparently the west isn't all that well defined.
pvaldes 6y ago
You can implement the best policy in the planet after thinking for months in pros and cons and still be boycotted in a weekend by manipulated people that assure that you fail and then got scot-free for that crime (or almost [1]). Is literally a 'cold' war. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-anti-lockdown-protest-leader-contracts-covid/a-55915671 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-anti-lockdown-protest-leader-c... And the same pattern is happening everywhere.
- dbtc 6y ago
  Well punned. And yes - "firewalled" nations seem to have an increasing advantage these days... though I don't believe those ugly patches will hold in the long term.

by creato 6y ago

tmnvix 6y ago

I feel like the various policies have been consistently applied here in NZ.

AndrewBissell 6y ago
Island countries are a special case. Hawaii has similarly been able to keep cases down to a small handful, at the cost of tanking the tourist economy on which the state depends. To achieve the same level of screening in a country with large land borders like Germany would require truly draconian travel and trade restrictions.
- markdown 6y ago
  A border is a border. You need permission to get across a border. It's not more draconian to restrict cross-border movement in Germany than it is in New Zealand, Fiji, or Mali.
  - Arainach 6y ago
    Hawaii and New Zealand have a fixed number of points of entry - airports for the most part, as well as a very few select ports (not that those are a major concern with recreational cruises shut down globally). Land borders are continuous with far more access points (spreading any testing or resources thin) and much more traffic due to lower cost and easier access.
    - markdown 6y ago
      Surely you jest? Does Germany not have an army? It's one of the wealthiest countries in the world. They can definitely show down the borders any time they want. See this from a year ago: https://www.gov.si/en/news/2020-03-20-germany-limits-the-number-of-open-border-crossing-points/ https://www.gov.si/en/news/2020-03-20-germany-limits-the-num... > and much more traffic due to lower cost and easier access The traffic only exists while there is a high chance that people can cross the border. Close the borders for everything but cargo, and there will be much less traffic. People will make up all sorts of excuses, but in fact anything is possible if you take the risk seriously enough. I mean if COVID killed everyone it infected instantly and turned them into zombies, how soon would you see every way into Germany guarded?
      - zwaps 6y ago
        I generally think more can be done. But your post is simplifying much. Every way into German is literally all of it, except small parts in the North which are sea. Germany is all land border, essentially. Too much to control with any army. Ask Americans how that wall with Mexico is going. Like that. Also, when Europeans speak of border posts, they mean some scanners on otherwise open highways. However, this doesn't mean that there's some sort of restriction outside of these border posts. Shutting them down doesn't mean anything is closed or whatever. You can cross into Germany literally anywhere. There are no borders, not in the way that you think. When I was on the wrong side of the Dutch border soon before a local lockdown during a shooting, but was in a hurry, I just went through a village road. Heck, there's even towns that practically cross borders. How are you going to control every street? Right now, borders to several countries ARE closed. Does it stop most people coming to Germany? Nope. There are also political considerations that are too complex to discuss here. Livelihoods across borders depend on coming to Germany, as well as a lot of pan-EU traffic. An overreach is likely shut down by courts, in the worst case by an EU court, which opens a new can of worms. It's not as easy as you think.
        markdown 6y ago
        Thank you. I appreciate the correction.
  - read_if_gay_ 6y ago
    If you live near a land border it’s not unlikely that some of your friends or family are on the other side of it. No such thing in Hawaii.
- olliej 6y ago
  Australia got it under control, and when they had surges in some states but not others they limited interstate travel until the overrun states got it under control. The US and Europe could have done this. England could have done this. They chose not to and exchanged a month of pain for a year of pain and 100s of thousands of deaths.
  - zwaps 6y ago
    Germany is probably the least comparable country here. It's smack dab in the center of Europe, has a population density of an entirely different magnitude, and is - most importantly - surrounded by some countries that do not take Covid seriously for whatever reason, and it can not easily close the border, which also doesn't physically exists anymore, because it is a huge political thing on multiple levels from local to EU. Germany is more locked-down internally (like Australia and NZ) than it is on its outside borders. Is it a mess? Yes. Should it be done better? Yes. But honestly, if Germany was an Island, it would be doing just as good as Australia and NZ. It locked down internal travel several times, had one of the best contact tracing when it was still possible, and generally just got outplayed by new strains swamping through land borders that neither NZ nor Australia even have.
  - aksss 6y ago
    > US could have done this No, absent martial law being imposed by the feds, this was never an option. The US federal government is not legally able to do the same things that unitary nations like South Korea and Australia can do on a whim. States delegated certain limited powers to the feds at inception, and reserve many, while affirmatively proscribing the federal government from doing specific things. States in the US are not simply local administrative bodies, they are essentially mini-nations that have out-sourced certain shared services. I’m speaking generally of course but that’s a better way to understand civics in the US vs some other (most?) countries. As a consequence of this system, states bear a lot of responsibility for their own policies. What do you think the tolerance would have been (or still is) for Joe Biden, much less Trump, declaring martial law? About zero, I’d suspect.
    - boatmansloth 6y ago
- obtino 6y ago
  UK is an island as well. It's not a special case then?
  - zwily 6y ago
    UK didn’t immediately lock all borders tight.
  - d_theorist 6y ago
    UK has 10x the population and is a global hub.
- raymondh 6y ago
  Hawaii has been open to tourists for a while and it is working out well. Every new arrival has to have a negative coronavirus test and must enable contact tracing software for the duration of their stay. Restaurants and whale watching excursions are limited to a fraction of the original capacity, but they are open. People wear masks on the beach but not in the water. Mostly, it feels pretty safe. The daily case counts in Maui over the past few days could be counted on your fingers.
  - aksss 6y ago
    I think the point of being in Hawaii is to be outside, with predictable steady breeze and lots of UV. Parts of Germany (and many other places in world) are quite a different environment (predominantly indoor with recirculated air and little sunlight. Sigh. Why do we live this way, raymond?) Also, Kauai did go on lockdown forcing every arrival to quarantine for 14 days regardless of testing status after they had a local COVID death. That policy was in early December, but I think they’re back on the general state plan now.
    - AndrewBissell 6y ago
      Kauai requires a negative Covid test to pass a phalanx of National Guardsmen when you enter, plus a 3 day stay in a bubble resort at the end of which you must test negative again to leave quarantine. During my recent stay at one bubble resort the rules were quite lax and it was easy to mingle with people who were not under quarantine. Contra the parent, it is definitely not the case that people are wearing masks on the beach (nor should they), although they are generally still required in all other indoor situations except restaurants. I think you are right that outdoor settings and ample sunlight are important factors in Hawaii. Conditions are still dire for the tourist industry even after things have opened back up a little bit. Just today I saw a headline in a local Kauai paper about small business owners organizing a meeting to agitate for loosening some more restrictions to help keep them afloat.
pfundstein 6y ago
Australia's state leaders have been steadfast in their handling of the pandemic despite the Federal Government initially fighting the states' swift and strict response.
dbtc 6y ago
Some things we can all learn from NZ: * respond quickly * remain consistent * be an island with <6 million people
- shalmanese 6y ago
  What can we learn from Vietnam?
ojhughes 6y ago
But what’s the exit strategy for NZ? Unless borders remain closed indefinitely I can’t see zero COVID to be maintainable in the long term.

markdown 6y ago

If you're using "western" to mean predominantly white, then what about New Zealand?

rglullis 6y ago
Not densely populated, and an island.
yesenadam 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world (A fascinating article.)
- markdown 6y ago
  Fascinating indeed, but shows that I was right to ask. Apparently the west isn't all that well defined.

pvaldes 6y ago

You can implement the best policy in the planet after thinking for months in pros and cons and still be boycotted in a weekend by manipulated people that assure that you fail and then got scot-free for that crime (or almost [1]). Is literally a 'cold' war. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-anti-lockdown-protest-leader-contracts-covid/a-55915671 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-anti-lockdown-protest-leader-c... And the same pattern is happening everywhere.

dbtc 6y ago
Well punned. And yes - "firewalled" nations seem to have an increasing advantage these days... though I don't believe those ugly patches will hold in the long term.