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> Attaching four hours of storage to a solar generation farm, just enough to get through the duck curve, is now slightly cheaper than coal This completely igno
by slfnflctd 6y ago
> Attaching four hours of storage to a solar generation farm, just enough to get through the duck curve, is now slightly cheaper than coal
This completely ignores scenarios of extended cloud cover, cold temperatures and low wind (somewhat like we just saw in Texas) where properly winterized baseline power would be the only way to keep everything up the whole way through.
Barring future unknown tech, we will always need either nuclear or natural gas if we want five nines of uptime in our electrical power. There is just no practical way currently to build enough storage across the grid to maintain 100% uptime during a week or more of reduced renewable generation.
- epistasis 6y agoIf I were in Texas last week, I would have loved to have a home solar system with a battery that let me island from the grid. This is definitely practical and happening even at today's high prices. In a decade, ERCOT will look nothing like it does today. It will have massive amounts of solar and storage, and even more wind. This is replacing gas plants as they age out.
- jfubxyb 6y agoA buddy of mine has solar panels. During the storm they got covered in ice and snow, and generated about 180 watt hours in a 24 hour period
- epistasis 6y agoThis is not a typical experience, from what I've heard. But for exceptional cases, in addition to fixed storage in our homes, we should be able to use our EV batteries for items of exceptional need, as they typically can handle 3-4 days worth of energy needs.
- selimthegrim 6y agoYou would think that but some municipalities like New Orleans are addicted to the franchise taxes from new gas plants and roll over for the utilities (I am speaking about the South in general)
- smallnamespace 6y agoIf your grid covers a large region and you have sufficient transmission, then somewhere, there is excess electricity from wind/solar that you can bring in. Remember, we're talking about a world where building renewables to 4x peak demand would be actually economical. This works on the same principle as an insurance market: it's likely that even at 4x capacity, your local solar farm has a few cloudy days. It's highly unlikely that your entire regional grid generation falls below demand. That probability falls (super?-)exponentially in the size of the region. Taking a step back: yes, renewable power is intermittent and you need electricity here, now. Either 1) transmit from elsewhere, 2) store locally, or 3) supplement with a stable source (nuclear / thermal). The choice simply comes down to cost (to provide a given level of reliability). The most efficient solution is likely to do all of the above, taking local conditions into account. Adjusting for local conditions is one thing that a (well-managed) market helps tackle.
- sudosysgen 6y agoThis is a dangerous and wrong assumption. Weather events can have high area. What do you do if a hurricane comes at the same time as high cloud cover?
- epistasis 6y agoYou plan for the worst case, same as we do now.
- sudosysgen 6y agoSure, but solar plus wind does not allow the flexibility to plan for the worst case and come out ahead.
- Nasrudith 6y agoWind across enough longitude is impossible to not exist at all given temperature differentials creating wind and the rotation of the earth. Wind compliments solar beautifully because things cool off at night from the lack of sun making it produce more power then. If the earth no longer rotates across the axis or the sun goes out the lack of power is irrelevant to in that worsr case scenario.
- theodric 6y agoHow about not having five nines, and just finding a way to live within that envelope?
- throwawayboise 6y agoYep. Cheaper than all of this is having a few blankets, a camp stove, and a week's worth of rice and beans on hand.
- YarickR2 6y agoPotable water, flushable toilet, heat insulated pipes.
- ip26 6y agoWill we actually need five nines out of renewables any time soon? We have the option of hanging on to old fossil fuel plants as emergency power for many decades to come. Peaker plants already perform a similar sort of role. Our CO2 goals won’t be compromised by running emergency power off fossil fuel once every decade or two.
- rhodozelia 6y agokeeping old fossil plants sitting idle but in working order is possible but will cost nearly as much as generating at full capacity, minus the cost of fuel. Imagine a car that sits in a garage and once a decade you take it out and thrash it. Machines degrade just from time not necessarily wear as rubber and gaskets become brittle, metal rusts, capacitors leak, fuel degrades, algae grows, rats chew on whatever they can, shafts and bearings and motors seize or get flat spots from sitting. Look at Texas and their fleet of plants that didn’t start when they were needed. Any machine that is not running is likely to stay not running.