6 ms·

I always took it as: As the nuclear plants from the 70s and 80s are getting decommissioned because of age, there is no plan to replace them with new nuclear. So

I always took it as: As the nuclear plants from the 70s and 80s are getting decommissioned because of age, there is no plan to replace them with new nuclear. So they should be replace them with wind and solar, because wind and solar is a cheaper, quicker, and more reliable alternative then new nuclear (as this tread demonstrates). I don’t see the debate as existing nuclear vs. new wind and solar, but as new nuclear vs. new wind and solar.

Robotbeat 6y ago
Germany is a counterexample. Much progress was lost with the decision to accelerate retirement of (rather than extend) nuclear power plants. The rule ought to be we retire all coal, then all (or virtually all) natural gas before considering retiring nuclear. Extend or even upgrade existing nuclear to ensure safety and productivity. (The US has mostly been doing a pretty good job of this, upgrading and maintaining the existing fleet and even adding a reactor here or there, although we have had some unforced errors like how some nuclear power plants in California were shut down early.)
cbmuser 6y ago
Wind and solar need backup power plants and therefore *CANNOT* replace nuclear power plants.
- Robotbeat 6y ago
  Well, they can, but it’s a lot harder than people realize. To replace 1GW of nuclear completely in Virginia without a bunch of transmission, you may need about 14GW nameplate solar and about 50GWh of storage. It’s not cheap. Source: here, with 0 as exponent, 2011 as the year, 2020 cost scenario, and only solar and battery storage. https://model.energy https://model.energy
  - pfdietz 6y ago
    I assume that was with just batteries for storage, not batteries and hydrogen. Adding hydrogen often greatly reduces the overcapacity needed in those model solutions.
    - Robotbeat 6y ago
      As you can see in that model, you're correct. But I generally find the assumptions in those solutions to be optimistic. Large scale hydrogen storage using salt domes is not as mature of a technology as we would like. Solar and battery are solutions mostly independent of geography (although latitude and weather play a role in solar, of course). Purely replacing nuclear without relying on any backup or geographic trickery can be simulated by just using solar and battery. But it's also useful as a way of understanding these systems. It's often insisted that you CANNOT replace baseload power with solar and battery, and yet you, in fact, can. Adding other energy (including nuclear) and storage sources as well as long-distance transmission help tremendously, in this case by about a factor of 2-3x or so in cost. If you can't tell, I'm bothered almost exactly equally by those arguing against nuclear as I am by those who argue against solar and wind. Both "sides" are wrong because either options would suffice and are safe. But it's much cheaper to just do both, or expressed in another way, allow us to emit the least amount of carbon emissions possible without freezing anyone to death or causing pipes to burst or dealing out energy poverty.
      - pfdietz 6y ago
        Nuclear on a scale needed to replace fossil fuels is also a technology that is not mature. In particular, it would require such an expansion that a full breeding cycle would soon be necessary. The deepest flaw of nuclear is that it has failed to show good experience effects. This alone marks it as a doomed technology, when it is facing competition with strong experience effects. Unless this changes, things will only get worse for nuclear, not better.
thinkcontext 6y ago
There was supposed to be a nuclear renaissance kicked off by the loan guarantees passed under Bush. The AP1000 was supposed to be safer, simpler, more efficient and easier to build. However, the 2 plants that started under Obama were failures, with one getting cancelled after spending $9B on a hole in the ground and the other about to come online after going 2x+ over time and money budgets. Westinghouse, the maker of the AP1000, went through bankruptcy as a result. All prospective AP1000 projects have been halted. No generator in their right mind would order one without huge additional subsidy from the government, guaranteeing against construction risk.

Robotbeat 6y ago

Germany is a counterexample. Much progress was lost with the decision to accelerate retirement of (rather than extend) nuclear power plants. The rule ought to be we retire all coal, then all (or virtually all) natural gas before considering retiring nuclear. Extend or even upgrade existing nuclear to ensure safety and productivity. (The US has mostly been doing a pretty good job of this, upgrading and maintaining the existing fleet and even adding a reactor here or there, although we have had some unforced errors like how some nuclear power plants in California were shut down early.)

cbmuser 6y ago

Wind and solar need backup power plants and therefore *CANNOT* replace nuclear power plants.

Robotbeat 6y ago
Well, they can, but it’s a lot harder than people realize. To replace 1GW of nuclear completely in Virginia without a bunch of transmission, you may need about 14GW nameplate solar and about 50GWh of storage. It’s not cheap. Source: here, with 0 as exponent, 2011 as the year, 2020 cost scenario, and only solar and battery storage. https://model.energy https://model.energy
- pfdietz 6y ago
  I assume that was with just batteries for storage, not batteries and hydrogen. Adding hydrogen often greatly reduces the overcapacity needed in those model solutions.
  - Robotbeat 6y ago
    As you can see in that model, you're correct. But I generally find the assumptions in those solutions to be optimistic. Large scale hydrogen storage using salt domes is not as mature of a technology as we would like. Solar and battery are solutions mostly independent of geography (although latitude and weather play a role in solar, of course). Purely replacing nuclear without relying on any backup or geographic trickery can be simulated by just using solar and battery. But it's also useful as a way of understanding these systems. It's often insisted that you CANNOT replace baseload power with solar and battery, and yet you, in fact, can. Adding other energy (including nuclear) and storage sources as well as long-distance transmission help tremendously, in this case by about a factor of 2-3x or so in cost. If you can't tell, I'm bothered almost exactly equally by those arguing against nuclear as I am by those who argue against solar and wind. Both "sides" are wrong because either options would suffice and are safe. But it's much cheaper to just do both, or expressed in another way, allow us to emit the least amount of carbon emissions possible without freezing anyone to death or causing pipes to burst or dealing out energy poverty.
    - pfdietz 6y ago
      Nuclear on a scale needed to replace fossil fuels is also a technology that is not mature. In particular, it would require such an expansion that a full breeding cycle would soon be necessary. The deepest flaw of nuclear is that it has failed to show good experience effects. This alone marks it as a doomed technology, when it is facing competition with strong experience effects. Unless this changes, things will only get worse for nuclear, not better.

thinkcontext 6y ago

There was supposed to be a nuclear renaissance kicked off by the loan guarantees passed under Bush. The AP1000 was supposed to be safer, simpler, more efficient and easier to build. However, the 2 plants that started under Obama were failures, with one getting cancelled after spending $9B on a hole in the ground and the other about to come online after going 2x+ over time and money budgets. Westinghouse, the maker of the AP1000, went through bankruptcy as a result. All prospective AP1000 projects have been halted. No generator in their right mind would order one without huge additional subsidy from the government, guaranteeing against construction risk.