4 ms·

> It’s straight to the landfill every 6 months. Isn't that a trend that has mostly ended or is about to end now? It looks like that was mostly caused by nm pro

> It’s straight to the landfill every 6 months. Isn't that a trend that has mostly ended or is about to end now? It looks like that was mostly caused by nm process improvements for ASIC chips in the past. With 7/5nm ASIC chips it seems like it should now progress as fast/slowly as the nm process capabilities of chip manufacturers in general. Not pro-BTC, but this seem very much like faulty interpolation based on a past trend.

WanderPanda 6y ago
I was wondering the exact same thing a couple days ago, would be great if a more knowledgable person could confirm this
Closi 6y ago
Technology continues to advance - I don’t think there is enough evidence to say that we have hit a fundamental limit on computer/asic power/speed performance yet. 3nm will hit in 2024, but until then there will always be advances in chip design. It’s not just about speed, it’s also about thermals, power consumption and manufacture price to work out the TCO of mining.
- hobofan 6y ago
  > 3nm will hit in 2024, but until then there will always be advances in chip design. I'm not an expert on chip design, but I would have assumed that there isn't a lot of room for improvements of ASIC mining chips, given that they are probably a straightforward implementation of the hashing algo used in Bitcoin (and that a few thousand+ times), in contrast to CPU design which is more dependent on other computing/hardware trends.
  - Closi 6y ago
    Well even without chip design, for instance if you decrease unit cost, that also has the impact of changing the mining landscape because many more ASIC miners can enter the game. Also remember an ASIC miner will generally use more than it costs in electricity each year, so a relatively small improvement in hashes / watt makes a big difference to overall profitability. CPU design is more complex, but also has more people working in the space and has been going for longer. I just get sceptical if someone says this is as good as it is going to get because history shows usually those predictions end up being wrong. As a child I thought Super Mario 64 was as good as computer graphics were ever going to get...
    - hobofan 6y ago
      > for instance if you decrease unit cost That doesn't diminish the hashing power of the equipment you already bought though (and the topic was obsolete equipment). > so a relatively small improvement in hashes / watt makes a big difference to overall profitability Yeah, that's a fair point. > I just get sceptical if someone says this is as good as it is going to get And I'm skeptical if people blindly extrapolate past trends, assuming that they will continue to hold. I wasn't saying that it won't get better from here on out, just that the extreme growth that was mostly fueled by quickly going through the existing nm process steps can't be sustained, and that from now on it will follow the same slowish pace as all chip miniaturization.
      - Closi 6y ago
        > That doesn't diminish the hashing power of the equipment you already bought though (and the topic was obsolete equipment). It means even more equipment to go obsolete when improvements come through - and more equipment deployed does not equal more bitcoins generated, so it is an issue of more hardware that will ultimately end up in landfill / being scrapped. > And I'm skeptical if people blindly extrapolate past trends Well I'm also sceptical of people who blindly assume progress won't be made. To quote someone in 2014 predicting what would happen to ASIC design... > As an emerging field of IC design, bitcoin mining ASICs have experienced rapid evolution over the past two years. However, they cannot keep evolving and developing at the current rate. https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-can-longer-ignore-moores-law https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-can-longer-ignore-mo... Well, still, try see how profitable your 3 year old ASIC miner is today...
- diroussel 6y ago
  No matter how much faster and more efficient the mining becomes, the hash rate will adjust. It’s a self balancing system.

WanderPanda 6y ago

I was wondering the exact same thing a couple days ago, would be great if a more knowledgable person could confirm this

Closi 6y ago

Technology continues to advance - I don’t think there is enough evidence to say that we have hit a fundamental limit on computer/asic power/speed performance yet. 3nm will hit in 2024, but until then there will always be advances in chip design. It’s not just about speed, it’s also about thermals, power consumption and manufacture price to work out the TCO of mining.

hobofan 6y ago
> 3nm will hit in 2024, but until then there will always be advances in chip design. I'm not an expert on chip design, but I would have assumed that there isn't a lot of room for improvements of ASIC mining chips, given that they are probably a straightforward implementation of the hashing algo used in Bitcoin (and that a few thousand+ times), in contrast to CPU design which is more dependent on other computing/hardware trends.
- Closi 6y ago
  Well even without chip design, for instance if you decrease unit cost, that also has the impact of changing the mining landscape because many more ASIC miners can enter the game. Also remember an ASIC miner will generally use more than it costs in electricity each year, so a relatively small improvement in hashes / watt makes a big difference to overall profitability. CPU design is more complex, but also has more people working in the space and has been going for longer. I just get sceptical if someone says this is as good as it is going to get because history shows usually those predictions end up being wrong. As a child I thought Super Mario 64 was as good as computer graphics were ever going to get...
  - hobofan 6y ago
    > for instance if you decrease unit cost That doesn't diminish the hashing power of the equipment you already bought though (and the topic was obsolete equipment). > so a relatively small improvement in hashes / watt makes a big difference to overall profitability Yeah, that's a fair point. > I just get sceptical if someone says this is as good as it is going to get And I'm skeptical if people blindly extrapolate past trends, assuming that they will continue to hold. I wasn't saying that it won't get better from here on out, just that the extreme growth that was mostly fueled by quickly going through the existing nm process steps can't be sustained, and that from now on it will follow the same slowish pace as all chip miniaturization.
    - Closi 6y ago
      > That doesn't diminish the hashing power of the equipment you already bought though (and the topic was obsolete equipment). It means even more equipment to go obsolete when improvements come through - and more equipment deployed does not equal more bitcoins generated, so it is an issue of more hardware that will ultimately end up in landfill / being scrapped. > And I'm skeptical if people blindly extrapolate past trends Well I'm also sceptical of people who blindly assume progress won't be made. To quote someone in 2014 predicting what would happen to ASIC design... > As an emerging field of IC design, bitcoin mining ASICs have experienced rapid evolution over the past two years. However, they cannot keep evolving and developing at the current rate. https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-can-longer-ignore-moores-law https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-can-longer-ignore-mo... Well, still, try see how profitable your 3 year old ASIC miner is today...
diroussel 6y ago
No matter how much faster and more efficient the mining becomes, the hash rate will adjust. It’s a self balancing system.