3 ms·
A few points on this... I'm by no means an expert and two incidents in one day is by no means a correlation. 1. Some people here have pointed towards the Birth
by bArray 6y ago
A few points on this... I'm by no means an expert and two incidents in one day is by no means a correlation.
1. Some people here have pointed towards the Birthday paradox making this seem worse, with another flight suffering a somewhat similar issue on the same day. Sure, but with so few flights operating, I would expect this not to be such a great factor. The number of colliding Birthdays in a class should be greatly reduced with fewer students.
2. Another idea is that it could be that this happens all the time and we just don't realize. I imagine people living within flight paths being showered with engine parts on a regular basis would get more news attention.
3. I suspect many of these planes prior to the lockdown would rarely spend longer than 12 hours on the ground. I suspect now these planes could be spending weeks on the ground. I remember a picture showing tonnes of planes parked up on a runway waiting for operations to pick back up.
4. Regarding (3), that means these engines are possibly being thermal cycled unlike they've previously experienced. I imagine a jet engine remains hot internally for quite some hours even after flight - how regularly have they been reaching minus temperatures?
5. Regarding (3), with fewer flights these planes might be reaching their maintenance timeouts rather than air mile timeouts. It could be that the timeouts for maintenance are too long.
6. Regarding (3), due to reduced operations, airlines could be skimping out on maintenance - which I believe requires entirely disassembling the engines and checking them. This would of course only really go undetected if engine maintenance is done internally.
Just some thoughts anyway, would like to hear from some aviation experts.
- jillesvangurp 6y agoThis was not a passenger plane and it did several flights back and forth to new york in the 48 hours before: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vq-bwt https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vq-bwt So, your are off on the wrong track as this seems unrelated to covid, reduced flying hours, etc. The plane was basically flying back and forth pretty much non stop. It's an old plane, stuff breaks once in a while. I'm sure there will be an investigation and it will likely point to some overlooked defect, metal fatigue, or perhaps it hit a bird or something like that.