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I'll believe it when I see it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation_program Every decade there's a p

by konjin 6y ago

I'll believe it when I see it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation_program Every decade there's a plan to return to the moon by the next decade and it always gets cancelled half way through. I doubt the US can do this any longer as it has lost all the institutional knowledge of how to run such a program since the 70s. I'd go so far as to say that it is impossible to run a successful manned mission past low earth orbit with the current incentives in government and the risk aversion in terms of both cash and lives.

JKCalhoun 6y ago
> I doubt the US can do this any longer as it has lost all the institutional knowledge of how to run such a program since the 70s. Not sure I agree. I think the end of the Cold War and loss of our "competition" may be a bigger factor. China no doubt could light a fire under the U.S. again. Or, how I stopped worrying and learned to love Cold Wars.
- manderley 6y ago
  But also, it really doesn't matter. The US has way bigger problems than whether it could launch a successful moon mission for pointless political posturing.
  - JKCalhoun 6y ago
    Perhaps. The U.S. had problems in the 50's and 60's as well: fighting wars in South-Eastern Asian countries...
    - manderley 6y ago
      What does that have to do with anything? That's just deflecting by posting something weird.
      - ALittleLight 6y ago
        The point is that the US had much bigger problems the last time it landed on the moon too.
  - risyachka 6y ago
    By pointless you mean new advancements in tech that probably will improve other sectors in one way or another?
  - mlindner 6y ago
    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/how-apollo-8-saved-1968-180970991/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/how-a... 1968, the 2020 of the 1960s. Martin Luther King Jr and Robert F Kennedy were assassinated, race riots in many cities (much worse than our current riots), general mass protests, a criminal president, and a war going poorly.
- blackrock 6y ago
  Plot twist: China is just goading the United States into spending another shit ton of money into stupid vanity space projects. All China has to say, is that they’re going to put the first Chinese woman on the moon by 2029. Then the American politicians will go apeshit and say that they must beat the commies. “How dare these bat-eating orientals try to outdo us? We’re going to show them what capitalism and white privilege means to the world!” Btw, what the fck is an oriental? Who uses that anymore? Apparently, a lot of racist white people still uses that term. And Senator John McCain kept calling Asian people “gooks” until they day he croaked. What a scumbag. Then the USA goes and spends another $500 billion on this Artemis and Lunar Gateway missions. Money that they don’t have, so the Fed will just have to print more money to sustain the national credit card. Whether the project succeeds or not, is irrelevant, as the moon missions really adds no further strategic advantage to the United States. And all the allied partners are just leeching off America’s money printing, to say that they’re also lunar partners with NASA. Meanwhile, America keeps spending big on their military. They keep sailing warships and aircraft carriers up and down China’s coastline as a big fck you to the Chinese. Meanwhile, Texas freezes to death. Oregon is starving to death. The national minimum wage is still $8.50, because Joe can’t give the poor people a raise. Infrastructure is crumbling. Young adults have crippling student loan debt. Millennials can’t afford a house, and can’t afford to start a family. Then 2029 rolls around, and China say: “Naw America, we were just fcking with you. We were just trolling you when we said we were going to put a Chinese woman on the moon. We didn’t think you’d actually believe us. Thanks for the LOLz btw.” America goes: “Dude, wtf?”
starpilot 6y ago
Comment is downvoted, but he has a point. We've been trying to return to the moon for over a decade: https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a26962388/going-back-to-the-moon/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a26962388/g... George W Bush said we would return by 2020: https://www.nasa.gov/missions/solarsystem/bush_vision.html https://www.nasa.gov/missions/solarsystem/bush_vision.html There's nothing indicating that this initiative is any more serious. There isn't a space race, people don't care. If this were canceled in favor of any other program (say, relief for climate-related crises), there would be very little opposition.
- skissane 6y ago
  > There's nothing indicating that this initiative is any more serious. I think Artemis 1 and 2 are very likely to happen. The hardware for Artemis 1 is fully constructed, they are just in the final testing/bugfixing phases; hardware for Artemis 2 is currently under construction. Probably going to take longer than they plan, but they'll get there. They are politically very difficult to kill because of how much money has been invested in it, the lobbying power of the contractors on them, the international cooperation with the Europeans (who contribute Orion's service module). That is just sending people in orbit around the moon (as in Apollo 8), not landing on it. I think it is also very likely that something like SpaceX DearMoon is going to happen (probably even that specific mission, but if not that one, some other). The market exists – billionaires – it isn't a huge market, but it is enough to make a successful business out of it. But that is still in the Apollo 8 rather than Apollo 11 category. Moving ahead, I think some kind of human landing on the moon is very likely eventually – whether or not the current NASA Human Landing System procurement leads to it. If a government space agency doesn't eventually do it, probably sooner or later private space tourism will. NASA's current goal of 2024 is unrealistic, but I think it is very likely people will return to the Moon's surface within the next 20 years.
nickik 6y ago
We evaluation the plan of its own merits beyond just saying 'didn't work in the past so want work now'. The reality is a lot of knowledge was GAINED since then as well. This program will be very different then Apollo, not a copy. So the institutional knowledge of Appollo would not really apply and would not be a help. Going back to the moon the way Appollo did is totally impossible now, you could never pay for it and it would be to unsafe. We now actually have situation that is very different then Constellation and other programs. The program Artemis actually has buy in from Republicans and Democrats, both in congress and in the white house. The New Space movement has happened. Lead by SpaceX there have been massive amounts of improvements in the industry as whole and in launch in particular. NASA can now get access to a super-heavy class rocket whenever they want at a low price. NASA has also learned and evolve quite a bit, NASA actually does learn from its failures. The way NASA does contracting now for the most part is quite different compared to the past. NASA now prefers to use fixed size contract with contractor submitted milestones and designs. This is far more successful compared to cost-plus contracts of the past. Sadly, SLS and Orion are still on the old model. However all the Gateway System, CLIPS (cargo to the moon) and the human lander are contracted that way. Importantly, SpaceX is Starship is one of those commercial landers and if NASA finances that, going to the moon becomes not just possible, but the capabilities will be way beyond what Apollo could do. Even if NASA cancels the Artemis program again, if they finance Starship, its very likely that somebody would develop the capability and go anyway. Being pessimistic is fine, but the situation now is incredibly different then 20 years ago.

by konjin 6y ago

JKCalhoun 6y ago

> I doubt the US can do this any longer as it has lost all the institutional knowledge of how to run such a program since the 70s. Not sure I agree. I think the end of the Cold War and loss of our "competition" may be a bigger factor. China no doubt could light a fire under the U.S. again. Or, how I stopped worrying and learned to love Cold Wars.

manderley 6y ago
But also, it really doesn't matter. The US has way bigger problems than whether it could launch a successful moon mission for pointless political posturing.
- JKCalhoun 6y ago
  Perhaps. The U.S. had problems in the 50's and 60's as well: fighting wars in South-Eastern Asian countries...
  - manderley 6y ago
    What does that have to do with anything? That's just deflecting by posting something weird.
    - ALittleLight 6y ago
      The point is that the US had much bigger problems the last time it landed on the moon too.
- risyachka 6y ago
  By pointless you mean new advancements in tech that probably will improve other sectors in one way or another?
- mlindner 6y ago
  https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/how-apollo-8-saved-1968-180970991/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/how-a... 1968, the 2020 of the 1960s. Martin Luther King Jr and Robert F Kennedy were assassinated, race riots in many cities (much worse than our current riots), general mass protests, a criminal president, and a war going poorly.
blackrock 6y ago
Plot twist: China is just goading the United States into spending another shit ton of money into stupid vanity space projects. All China has to say, is that they’re going to put the first Chinese woman on the moon by 2029. Then the American politicians will go apeshit and say that they must beat the commies. “How dare these bat-eating orientals try to outdo us? We’re going to show them what capitalism and white privilege means to the world!” Btw, what the fck is an oriental? Who uses that anymore? Apparently, a lot of racist white people still uses that term. And Senator John McCain kept calling Asian people “gooks” until they day he croaked. What a scumbag. Then the USA goes and spends another $500 billion on this Artemis and Lunar Gateway missions. Money that they don’t have, so the Fed will just have to print more money to sustain the national credit card. Whether the project succeeds or not, is irrelevant, as the moon missions really adds no further strategic advantage to the United States. And all the allied partners are just leeching off America’s money printing, to say that they’re also lunar partners with NASA. Meanwhile, America keeps spending big on their military. They keep sailing warships and aircraft carriers up and down China’s coastline as a big fck you to the Chinese. Meanwhile, Texas freezes to death. Oregon is starving to death. The national minimum wage is still $8.50, because Joe can’t give the poor people a raise. Infrastructure is crumbling. Young adults have crippling student loan debt. Millennials can’t afford a house, and can’t afford to start a family. Then 2029 rolls around, and China say: “Naw America, we were just fcking with you. We were just trolling you when we said we were going to put a Chinese woman on the moon. We didn’t think you’d actually believe us. Thanks for the LOLz btw.” America goes: “Dude, wtf?”

starpilot 6y ago

Comment is downvoted, but he has a point. We've been trying to return to the moon for over a decade: https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a26962388/going-back-to-the-moon/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a26962388/g... George W Bush said we would return by 2020: https://www.nasa.gov/missions/solarsystem/bush_vision.html https://www.nasa.gov/missions/solarsystem/bush_vision.html There's nothing indicating that this initiative is any more serious. There isn't a space race, people don't care. If this were canceled in favor of any other program (say, relief for climate-related crises), there would be very little opposition.

skissane 6y ago
> There's nothing indicating that this initiative is any more serious. I think Artemis 1 and 2 are very likely to happen. The hardware for Artemis 1 is fully constructed, they are just in the final testing/bugfixing phases; hardware for Artemis 2 is currently under construction. Probably going to take longer than they plan, but they'll get there. They are politically very difficult to kill because of how much money has been invested in it, the lobbying power of the contractors on them, the international cooperation with the Europeans (who contribute Orion's service module). That is just sending people in orbit around the moon (as in Apollo 8), not landing on it. I think it is also very likely that something like SpaceX DearMoon is going to happen (probably even that specific mission, but if not that one, some other). The market exists – billionaires – it isn't a huge market, but it is enough to make a successful business out of it. But that is still in the Apollo 8 rather than Apollo 11 category. Moving ahead, I think some kind of human landing on the moon is very likely eventually – whether or not the current NASA Human Landing System procurement leads to it. If a government space agency doesn't eventually do it, probably sooner or later private space tourism will. NASA's current goal of 2024 is unrealistic, but I think it is very likely people will return to the Moon's surface within the next 20 years.

nickik 6y ago

We evaluation the plan of its own merits beyond just saying 'didn't work in the past so want work now'. The reality is a lot of knowledge was GAINED since then as well. This program will be very different then Apollo, not a copy. So the institutional knowledge of Appollo would not really apply and would not be a help. Going back to the moon the way Appollo did is totally impossible now, you could never pay for it and it would be to unsafe. We now actually have situation that is very different then Constellation and other programs. The program Artemis actually has buy in from Republicans and Democrats, both in congress and in the white house. The New Space movement has happened. Lead by SpaceX there have been massive amounts of improvements in the industry as whole and in launch in particular. NASA can now get access to a super-heavy class rocket whenever they want at a low price. NASA has also learned and evolve quite a bit, NASA actually does learn from its failures. The way NASA does contracting now for the most part is quite different compared to the past. NASA now prefers to use fixed size contract with contractor submitted milestones and designs. This is far more successful compared to cost-plus contracts of the past. Sadly, SLS and Orion are still on the old model. However all the Gateway System, CLIPS (cargo to the moon) and the human lander are contracted that way. Importantly, SpaceX is Starship is one of those commercial landers and if NASA finances that, going to the moon becomes not just possible, but the capabilities will be way beyond what Apollo could do. Even if NASA cancels the Artemis program again, if they finance Starship, its very likely that somebody would develop the capability and go anyway. Being pessimistic is fine, but the situation now is incredibly different then 20 years ago.