6 ms·

I totally agree, but I think that first Boeing and ULA need to figure out how to earn those wins by improving their product.

kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
I predict that Bezos is prepping to buy ULA if the Vulcan proves to be a success. It's the natural growth option for Blue Origin to buy their way into an orbital vehicle.
- nexuist 6y ago
  It was my understanding that ULA was a joint alliance rather than an individual company? Isn't it comprised of Boeing and Lockheed Martin among others? Wouldn't Bezos have to buy it from them?
  - skissane 6y ago
    ULA is a 50-50 joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin, yes. So if Blue Origin wants to buy ULA, it has to negotiate with both Boeing and Lockheed Martin to be able to do it. I have no idea if Boeing and Lockheed Martin would be interested in selling. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin have their own space businesses separate from ULA, and likely view part-owning ULA as having some synergies with their own space businesses, and selling ULA to Bezos could threaten those synergies. OTOH, as they say, everyone has their price, and Bezos has enough money to pay just about anybody's.
    - prox 6y ago
      Wouldn’t it make more sense to become BULA ? So just add to the joint venture?
      - usrusr 6y ago
        Eventually ULA could be so far behind in technology that its worth would be scrap value minus workforce disposal (whoever buys them would have to either stomach continued wages or the political impact of mass layoffs). And Boeing/Lockheed Martin can't be entirely unaware of it, negotiations shouldn't be that hard. Infusing the existing org with a state of the art rocket/rocket development process has many failure modes (the new becoming "infected" with the stagnant mindset), but it could also work quite well, pairing the "cowboys" who know how to land a rocket stage with skilled "regulation jockeys". But BO has a much better chance of succeeding without ULA than ULA has without BO and in this situation entering in an alliance of equals would just be silly. The icing on the cake is that the failure mode (stagnancy infection) would also be far more likely in arm alliance of equals.
        prox 6y ago
        So Boeing and LM should be wise to maybe invest or partner up with BO in this scenario. Could be interesting. But ULA still got some good contracts from the military afaik. On the short term they aren’t going anywhere.
        skissane 6y ago
        > Infusing the existing org with a state of the art rocket/rocket development process has many failure modes (the new becoming "infected" with the stagnant mindset) It is funny saying that ULA might infect BO with a "stagnant mindset", given how little BO has actually delivered so far. BO had a two year head start over SpaceX, but in the same time that SpX has had over 100 successful orbital missions, BO hasn't made it to orbit once. In fact, thus far BO's only paying customer appears to be ULA – BO is supplying rocket engines to ULA's new Vulcan Centaur rocket. Vulcan Centaur is supposed to have its maiden launch by the end of this year; I wouldn't be surprised if it slips to next – but still, for all we know, Vulcan Centaur might make it to orbit before New Glenn does.
        prox 6y ago
        BO feels like a Bezos project thats just doing it because Elon is. I don’t think Bezos is really invested in it, more like “yeah I have a rocket company.” credits, at least that is the vibe of it.
- the_duke 6y ago
  Blue Origin is making slow but steady progress on New Glenn, which is about as capable as Falcon Heavy and has a reusable first stage. First flight could be next year. If they bought ULA it would be for the established cont(r)acts , but it would feel like an odd lateral move after investing so much money and effort into to their own vehicle, and a non reusable one at that. ULA s next rocket also uses the engine developed by BO for New Glenn, but is also not reusable apart from an optional future possibility of catching the engines with a helicopter.
  - manicdee 6y ago
    There's a lot more to ULA than just assembling old-space rockets. There are people there with the experience in designing, testing and launching rockets and all the equipment required to support them. There's also the real estate already zoned for rocket manufacturing. Massive win for BO if this comes to pass.
  - hourislate 6y ago
    I don't know much about New Glen or what Blue Origin is doing. Do they have a working rocket (New Glen) or is it still under design? I know Blue Origin was launching a rocket called New Shepard at one point, did they ever get anywhere with that? I was under the impression Blue Origin was more like a Virgin Galactic type of company.
    - kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
      Blue Origin builds the engines for the Vulcan. That will be their money maker.
      - nickik 6y ago
        No sorry it wont. The Vulcan only requires 2 engines and will have very low launch rate. That is nowhere near enough money to finance what Blue is spending. Blue Origin business model now and for years to come is selling Amazon stock.
    - rst 6y ago
- phreeza 6y ago
  Isn't ULA a consortium of Boeing and Lockheed Martin? I believe buying those would be beyond even Bezos means...
  - T-A 6y ago
    I just had to look up the numbers. Boeing market cap: 126.7 billion Lockheed market cap: 93.95 billion Bezos net worth: 197 billion So he doesn't have quite enough to buy both outright. On the other hand, both are diversified aerospace companies. If he just wanted their space parts, who knows...
  - ascorbic 6y ago
    It's a joint venture owned by Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Buying United Launch Alliance, LLC wouldn't require buying the parent companies.
- nickik 6y ago
  That's incredibly unlikely. Blue Origin has spend a huge amount of money already to develop their own orbital rocket. The build a huge rocket factory and a huge engine factory. They have their own control rooms and the own launch pads. The literally just spend the last 3 year rebuilding everything ULA already has from the ground up. All of that would be incredibly stupid if they would want to buy ULA.

kevin_thibedeau 6y ago

I predict that Bezos is prepping to buy ULA if the Vulcan proves to be a success. It's the natural growth option for Blue Origin to buy their way into an orbital vehicle.

nexuist 6y ago
It was my understanding that ULA was a joint alliance rather than an individual company? Isn't it comprised of Boeing and Lockheed Martin among others? Wouldn't Bezos have to buy it from them?
- skissane 6y ago
  ULA is a 50-50 joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin, yes. So if Blue Origin wants to buy ULA, it has to negotiate with both Boeing and Lockheed Martin to be able to do it. I have no idea if Boeing and Lockheed Martin would be interested in selling. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin have their own space businesses separate from ULA, and likely view part-owning ULA as having some synergies with their own space businesses, and selling ULA to Bezos could threaten those synergies. OTOH, as they say, everyone has their price, and Bezos has enough money to pay just about anybody's.
  - prox 6y ago
    Wouldn’t it make more sense to become BULA ? So just add to the joint venture?
    - usrusr 6y ago
      Eventually ULA could be so far behind in technology that its worth would be scrap value minus workforce disposal (whoever buys them would have to either stomach continued wages or the political impact of mass layoffs). And Boeing/Lockheed Martin can't be entirely unaware of it, negotiations shouldn't be that hard. Infusing the existing org with a state of the art rocket/rocket development process has many failure modes (the new becoming "infected" with the stagnant mindset), but it could also work quite well, pairing the "cowboys" who know how to land a rocket stage with skilled "regulation jockeys". But BO has a much better chance of succeeding without ULA than ULA has without BO and in this situation entering in an alliance of equals would just be silly. The icing on the cake is that the failure mode (stagnancy infection) would also be far more likely in arm alliance of equals.
      - prox 6y ago
        So Boeing and LM should be wise to maybe invest or partner up with BO in this scenario. Could be interesting. But ULA still got some good contracts from the military afaik. On the short term they aren’t going anywhere.
      - skissane 6y ago
        > Infusing the existing org with a state of the art rocket/rocket development process has many failure modes (the new becoming "infected" with the stagnant mindset) It is funny saying that ULA might infect BO with a "stagnant mindset", given how little BO has actually delivered so far. BO had a two year head start over SpaceX, but in the same time that SpX has had over 100 successful orbital missions, BO hasn't made it to orbit once. In fact, thus far BO's only paying customer appears to be ULA – BO is supplying rocket engines to ULA's new Vulcan Centaur rocket. Vulcan Centaur is supposed to have its maiden launch by the end of this year; I wouldn't be surprised if it slips to next – but still, for all we know, Vulcan Centaur might make it to orbit before New Glenn does.
        prox 6y ago
        BO feels like a Bezos project thats just doing it because Elon is. I don’t think Bezos is really invested in it, more like “yeah I have a rocket company.” credits, at least that is the vibe of it.
the_duke 6y ago
Blue Origin is making slow but steady progress on New Glenn, which is about as capable as Falcon Heavy and has a reusable first stage. First flight could be next year. If they bought ULA it would be for the established cont(r)acts , but it would feel like an odd lateral move after investing so much money and effort into to their own vehicle, and a non reusable one at that. ULA s next rocket also uses the engine developed by BO for New Glenn, but is also not reusable apart from an optional future possibility of catching the engines with a helicopter.
- manicdee 6y ago
  There's a lot more to ULA than just assembling old-space rockets. There are people there with the experience in designing, testing and launching rockets and all the equipment required to support them. There's also the real estate already zoned for rocket manufacturing. Massive win for BO if this comes to pass.
- hourislate 6y ago
  I don't know much about New Glen or what Blue Origin is doing. Do they have a working rocket (New Glen) or is it still under design? I know Blue Origin was launching a rocket called New Shepard at one point, did they ever get anywhere with that? I was under the impression Blue Origin was more like a Virgin Galactic type of company.
  - kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
    Blue Origin builds the engines for the Vulcan. That will be their money maker.
    - nickik 6y ago
      No sorry it wont. The Vulcan only requires 2 engines and will have very low launch rate. That is nowhere near enough money to finance what Blue is spending. Blue Origin business model now and for years to come is selling Amazon stock.
  - rst 6y ago
phreeza 6y ago
Isn't ULA a consortium of Boeing and Lockheed Martin? I believe buying those would be beyond even Bezos means...
- T-A 6y ago
  I just had to look up the numbers. Boeing market cap: 126.7 billion Lockheed market cap: 93.95 billion Bezos net worth: 197 billion So he doesn't have quite enough to buy both outright. On the other hand, both are diversified aerospace companies. If he just wanted their space parts, who knows...
- ascorbic 6y ago
  It's a joint venture owned by Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Buying United Launch Alliance, LLC wouldn't require buying the parent companies.
nickik 6y ago
That's incredibly unlikely. Blue Origin has spend a huge amount of money already to develop their own orbital rocket. The build a huge rocket factory and a huge engine factory. They have their own control rooms and the own launch pads. The literally just spend the last 3 year rebuilding everything ULA already has from the ground up. All of that would be incredibly stupid if they would want to buy ULA.