4 ms·

Poisson distribution, higher probability of short periods between failures than long ones.

• dmos62 6y ago
  Anyone care to elaborate? I don't understand what he means, but I feel like this is an interesting thread to pull.
  • nl 6y ago
    Briefly: if you expect 10 failures in 10 years evenly distributed then you would expect 1 per year. If it is a Possion distribution then you'd expect them to bunch up and get years with none, then them concentrated over a few years. Possion distributions usually imply a time factor. That's concerning in this case as it implies maintenance isn't effective.
    • nyolfen 6y ago
      how would this apply to disparate aircraft on different maintenance cycles?
      • gamegoblin 6y ago
        It has nothing to do with aircraft, and everything to do with random chance. Basically, it is more likely for time-series data to have clumps than to be perfectly even. Imagine you throw a three darts a board. Which is more likely: all darts are equidistant, or 2 of the darts are closer to each other than the 3rd? Now imagine it's 3 events in time rather than 3 darts on a board. And the same logic applies to an arbitrary number of events, of course.
        • nyolfen 6y ago
          it seems to me that there is a lot of room between "perfectly even" and "twice on the same day"