3 ms·
On inflation, absolutely. Nothing has changed since 2008 when people first brought up inflation
by chrisgd 6y ago
On inflation, absolutely. Nothing has changed since 2008 when people first brought up inflation
- AzzieElbab 6y agoI was reading his tweets and the point that it takes 3 debt dollars to create 1 dollar of value really did resonate with me. Wish I had access to analysis behind it though. And seriously, nothing has changed since 2008? We didn’t print a load of new money for one reason or another?
- chrisgd 6y agoYes, a lot of money printed since 2008 and yields at record lows, inflation not in sight.
- jopsen 6y agoHow do you bet on inflation? Hold stocks/stonks? Gold?
- fshbbdssbbgdd 6y agoTIPS (inflation-protected treasuries) are the purest bet on inflation.
- mshumi 6y agoTIPs adjusted by cpi determined by gov. Better off holding real assets. For retail, a large mortgage is a fantastic bet on inflation. For the more risk-loving, long gamma on any vehicles tracking real assets has really good risk/reward in a high inflation market.
- solaxun 6y agoOne thing has changed, and that is the amount of household debt. There is a class of bubble and related collapse that are driven primarily by debt fueled purchases. When debt bubbles collapse, stimulus doesn't have the intended effect because consumers use the stimulus funds to deleverage. This is what happened in 2008, and recoveries from these types of collapses tend to be much more sluggish. When you have consumers paying their mortgages down instead of spending that money on goods/services, inflation is not a concern and the money leaves the system as debts are paid down. There's much less debt this time. I'm not saying there will be massive inflation, but I'm definitely more concerned than I was 13 years ago. Debt deflation is a known phenomena since 1933 when Irving Fisher published: "The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions".