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Factors Shaping China's Use of Force Calculations Against Taiwan
- ggm 6y agoStrange mixture of defensible assertions from PRC docs and speculation. The worry would be the speculation reinforces beliefs which are "tested" by trust in the defensible assertions. It is worth bearing in mind the PRC posture on its other borders is (and has been since korea) fundamentally defensive. Taiwan is almost the sole window into offensive capability and intent. (India aside: i don't think border troops fights with chairs and bricks says much, but I might be wrong) I read this as "they're getting better at being ready, quickly, to exploit the situation" and "they wont be getting worse, even relatively speaking, anytime soon" and "we may not know when its hothead local command or a real shift in posture coming out of the center"