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Curb your enthusiasm. German politicians are currently busy reopening schools and hairdressers as the third wave is starting to hit. The vaccine rollout is goin

Curb your enthusiasm. German politicians are currently busy reopening schools and hairdressers as the third wave is starting to hit. The vaccine rollout is going frustratingly slow as well, with vaccination rates at 3-4% first dose and 2% second dose, because our politicians were more concerned with saving a few euros on the price per dose than on ramping up production capacity quickly.

Exmoor 6y ago
This is the second time today I'm seeing something about a new wave in Germany, but I'm just not seeing this born out in the overall data for the country [0]. Looking at the data I see a continued decline since mid to late December, albeit slightly flattening a bit in recent weeks. Are these more localized waves that wouldn't be apparent to an American not looking at more granular dashboards? What am I missing. [0] https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/de https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/de
- LeanderK 6y ago
  the mutants spreading fast, they are hard to spot since they are not yet dominating and we didn't do much PCR-sequencing in the past (so we have to extrapolate from the few areas that have reliable data). We appear to already have an R-value over one and the probable cause are the mutants. A simple model predicts a significant rise in cases around march the 7th.
LeanderK 6y ago
The slow vaccination is not really the fault of our german politicians and the situation is improving (since the negotiation was EU-wide). Also, some of the setbacks were hard to forecast, it's always easy in hindsight. The actual vaccination infrastructure is running quite smoothly, we just lack the vaccines so far.
- majewsky 6y ago
  I absolutely blame our government for being too risk-averse. We absolutely could have given the mRNA vaccine makers funding to build up production capacity before the efficacy results are in. There would have been a risk of spending a billion euros on nothing if the vaccines turn out to be ineffective, but that should be a risk worth taking if the success case has you save many times that money (and that's before we talk about the psychological impact of a prolonged crisis).

Exmoor 6y ago

This is the second time today I'm seeing something about a new wave in Germany, but I'm just not seeing this born out in the overall data for the country [0]. Looking at the data I see a continued decline since mid to late December, albeit slightly flattening a bit in recent weeks. Are these more localized waves that wouldn't be apparent to an American not looking at more granular dashboards? What am I missing. [0] https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/de https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/de

LeanderK 6y ago
the mutants spreading fast, they are hard to spot since they are not yet dominating and we didn't do much PCR-sequencing in the past (so we have to extrapolate from the few areas that have reliable data). We appear to already have an R-value over one and the probable cause are the mutants. A simple model predicts a significant rise in cases around march the 7th.

LeanderK 6y ago

The slow vaccination is not really the fault of our german politicians and the situation is improving (since the negotiation was EU-wide). Also, some of the setbacks were hard to forecast, it's always easy in hindsight. The actual vaccination infrastructure is running quite smoothly, we just lack the vaccines so far.

majewsky 6y ago
I absolutely blame our government for being too risk-averse. We absolutely could have given the mRNA vaccine makers funding to build up production capacity before the efficacy results are in. There would have been a risk of spending a billion euros on nothing if the vaccines turn out to be ineffective, but that should be a risk worth taking if the success case has you save many times that money (and that's before we talk about the psychological impact of a prolonged crisis).