There's some weight to some of this for sure. I don't think using past history and longevity of OSes makes much sense though. There's just not enough data, and

There's some weight to some of this for sure. I don't think using past history and longevity of OSes makes much sense though. There's just not enough data, and Linux also fills a very specific niche that is decidedly not filled by the other leading OSes, which gives it the market robustness it has seen so far I feel. To replace it, you would need to fill it's shoes, because it is entrenched in user land and some very big commercial industries. Maybe that day will come, but I don't even see a competitor lurking in the waters yet, so I don't think it will be soon.