4 ms·

>> All bubbles pop eventually. I think there's little doubt crypto is a bubble right now. Same thing was said in 2013 and 2017..

eloff 6y ago
I don't think it was wrong then either. I think this is a greater fool style of bubble like the famous tulip bubble, eventually we'll run out of fools. That's my opinion, but we'll see.
- mewpmewp2 6y ago
  The other possibility is that it will be widely used in the future as a store of value or for some other purposes. Might be rational to put at least some percentage of your net worth into it. People need and want something like that to exist where they have complete control over their assets without any worries about government or institutions.
  - eloff 6y ago
    In reality it is probably both. Unless governments take a hard line against bitcoin by banning it, something they mostly haven't been doing to date, I expect it will have a future as a kind of digital gold. However, gold has tens of thousands of years of history as an asset class, while bitcoin is a little less proven. Don't forget it used to be illegal to own gold in the US, so bitcoin is not as safe from government as people might think. But all financial assets tend to follow cycles of booms and busts. So the question is, where are we in the cycle? Are we nearing the top in the near term? I think we are, the growth of bitcoin has gone nearly vertical lately.
    - bl557 6y ago
      Bitcoin is still only 1/10 the market cap of gold, with the argument by Bitcoiners being that the asset is a 10-100x improvement over gold.
  - badjeans 6y ago
    > People need and want something like that to exist where they have complete control over their assets without any worries about government or institutions. The government can always just make a law and take whatever it wants from you (or imprison you). Doesn't matter if it's from a bank account or bitcoin cold storage on planet Musk.
    - solosoyokaze 6y ago
      > Doesn't matter if it's from a bank account or bitcoin cold storage on planet Musk. It's a lot easier for the government to pilfer your bank account, than for them to torture you to hand over your seed phrase (that is if they even know your real identity). Decentralization absolutely takes power away from the state. That's not even touching the truly anonymous crypto like zCash.
      - badjeans 6y ago
        They don't have to torture you, just hold you in contempt of court until you give it up. e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._Beatty_Chadwick https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._Beatty_Chadwick Works the same as with bank accounts or scamcoins.
        solosoyokaze 6y ago
        They can’t take the money from me though. They can hold you in contempt and access your funds without your permission with USD in a bank.
  - lottin 6y ago
    > People need and want something like that to exist where they have complete control over their assets without any worries about government or institutions. Are you sure? I have never in my life met anyone who thought they didn't have control over their assets or that they needed to have more control.
  - endless1234 6y ago
    I get this argument if it was for e.g. gold. A physical asset, thousands of years of people appreciating it, nothing else like it. But why might it be rational to put some of your net worth to bitcoin? What speaks for bitcoin existing in a meaningful form 50 years from now, instead of some improved, different (blockchain-based or not) digital asset?

eloff 6y ago

I don't think it was wrong then either. I think this is a greater fool style of bubble like the famous tulip bubble, eventually we'll run out of fools. That's my opinion, but we'll see.

mewpmewp2 6y ago
The other possibility is that it will be widely used in the future as a store of value or for some other purposes. Might be rational to put at least some percentage of your net worth into it. People need and want something like that to exist where they have complete control over their assets without any worries about government or institutions.
- eloff 6y ago
  In reality it is probably both. Unless governments take a hard line against bitcoin by banning it, something they mostly haven't been doing to date, I expect it will have a future as a kind of digital gold. However, gold has tens of thousands of years of history as an asset class, while bitcoin is a little less proven. Don't forget it used to be illegal to own gold in the US, so bitcoin is not as safe from government as people might think. But all financial assets tend to follow cycles of booms and busts. So the question is, where are we in the cycle? Are we nearing the top in the near term? I think we are, the growth of bitcoin has gone nearly vertical lately.
  - bl557 6y ago
    Bitcoin is still only 1/10 the market cap of gold, with the argument by Bitcoiners being that the asset is a 10-100x improvement over gold.
- badjeans 6y ago
  > People need and want something like that to exist where they have complete control over their assets without any worries about government or institutions. The government can always just make a law and take whatever it wants from you (or imprison you). Doesn't matter if it's from a bank account or bitcoin cold storage on planet Musk.
  - solosoyokaze 6y ago
    > Doesn't matter if it's from a bank account or bitcoin cold storage on planet Musk. It's a lot easier for the government to pilfer your bank account, than for them to torture you to hand over your seed phrase (that is if they even know your real identity). Decentralization absolutely takes power away from the state. That's not even touching the truly anonymous crypto like zCash.
    - badjeans 6y ago
      They don't have to torture you, just hold you in contempt of court until you give it up. e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._Beatty_Chadwick https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._Beatty_Chadwick Works the same as with bank accounts or scamcoins.
      - solosoyokaze 6y ago
        They can’t take the money from me though. They can hold you in contempt and access your funds without your permission with USD in a bank.
- lottin 6y ago
  > People need and want something like that to exist where they have complete control over their assets without any worries about government or institutions. Are you sure? I have never in my life met anyone who thought they didn't have control over their assets or that they needed to have more control.
- endless1234 6y ago
  I get this argument if it was for e.g. gold. A physical asset, thousands of years of people appreciating it, nothing else like it. But why might it be rational to put some of your net worth to bitcoin? What speaks for bitcoin existing in a meaningful form 50 years from now, instead of some improved, different (blockchain-based or not) digital asset?