4 ms·

I’ve not heard anyone actually explain why eradication is unrealistic.

faitswulff 6y ago
Mostly because the virus evolves, it’s global, and various countries have differing containment strategies and vaccination capacity. Again, it evolves so whatever the most successful variant is will take root in areas which have poor containment and evolve again. Unless we can contain it and vaccinate against the latest variants globally and all at once, it will likely persist in some form or another. Here's a good article on viral escape: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/vaccination-pace-herd-immunity/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/vacci...
Mediterraneo10 6y ago
Unlike smallpox, the only virus that humankind has successfully eradicated, there are animal reservoirs for COVID-19.
- skynet-9000 6y ago
  > Unlike smallpox, the only virus that humankind has successfully eradicated, there are animal reservoirs for COVID-19. there are, or there might be? Is there any evidence that COVID-19 exists in an animal population in any significant density? And, if so, couldn't that population just be quickly culled? Many different viruses (far more deadly than COVID-19) are known to exist in bats and guano, but they rarely escape into the larger human population. Not to say never, but the cross-over is rare and seems to be reducible with increased education.
chubot 6y ago
Looks like the first effort to eradicate smallpox was in 1950, and then by 1975 it existed only in Africa. Victory was declared in 1980. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Eradication Obviously every disease is different, but since it's only been done twice EVER, I would learn toward the burden of proof being on those to explain why it's realistic, not for those to explain why it's UNrealistic. I would summarize it as "The world is very big and there are a lot of people and places that got infected" ...
standardUser 6y ago
This coronavirus can pass to/from non-human species, which makes eliminating "reservoirs" of the virus impossible with current technology.

Mostly because the virus evolves, it’s global, and various countries have differing containment strategies and vaccination capacity. Again, it evolves so whatever the most successful variant is will take root in areas which have poor containment and evolve again. Unless we can contain it and vaccinate against the latest variants globally and all at once, it will likely persist in some form or another. Here's a good article on viral escape: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/vaccination-pace-herd-immunity/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/vacci...

Mediterraneo10 6y ago

Unlike smallpox, the only virus that humankind has successfully eradicated, there are animal reservoirs for COVID-19.

skynet-9000 6y ago
> Unlike smallpox, the only virus that humankind has successfully eradicated, there are animal reservoirs for COVID-19. there are, or there might be? Is there any evidence that COVID-19 exists in an animal population in any significant density? And, if so, couldn't that population just be quickly culled? Many different viruses (far more deadly than COVID-19) are known to exist in bats and guano, but they rarely escape into the larger human population. Not to say never, but the cross-over is rare and seems to be reducible with increased education.

chubot 6y ago

Looks like the first effort to eradicate smallpox was in 1950, and then by 1975 it existed only in Africa. Victory was declared in 1980. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Eradication Obviously every disease is different, but since it's only been done twice EVER, I would learn toward the burden of proof being on those to explain why it's realistic, not for those to explain why it's UNrealistic. I would summarize it as "The world is very big and there are a lot of people and places that got infected" ...

standardUser 6y ago

This coronavirus can pass to/from non-human species, which makes eliminating "reservoirs" of the virus impossible with current technology.