4 ms·
I think what we’re seeing is that the set of people making bets on political outcomes leans sharply Republican. It’s selection bias. There may be a broader me
by fallingfrog 6y ago
I think what we’re seeing is that the set of people making bets on political outcomes leans sharply Republican. It’s selection bias.
There may be a broader message there about representation too: if you are sitting in a meeting and 8 people think something is going to happen, but you disagree, and they are all upper class men (for example), and you’re a lower class woman, you probably have a better than 1 in 9 chance of being right, if it’s an issue that affects the public generally. People don’t realize their views are non representative if they live in an echo chamber.
- viklove 6y agoYou should start a quant firm employing only lower class women, and use their insight to decide which companies to invest in. If your hypothesis is correct, you'll be filthy rich in no time at all.
- fallingfrog 6y agoThat’s actually a pretty good idea.. but in the short term and during a speculative bubble, you make the most money by chasing what everyone else is also investing in, so it pays to have groupthink. The approach you suggest would probably work though if you could be patient over the course of the whole business cycle, 20 or 30 years.
- chillacy 6y agoThis is already kind of true but you don’t have to employ them, just run focus groups and surveys.
- fallingfrog 6y agoBy the way the point I’m making is about echo chambers not women being wiser than men. If you are the only white man in the room the same rule might hold. I feel like people are making an excessively shallow reading of what I just wrote.