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> the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true If players in the market have ways outside the market to signi
by pdonis 6y ago
> the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true
If players in the market have ways outside the market to significantly affect the outcome that the market is betting on, then it isn't a prediction market. The whole point of a prediction market is that there is no such feedback mechanism.
For example, the article discusses prediction market bets on Trump winning the election. The underlying assumption of such markets is that no player has more than one vote in the actual election, out of some 150 million or so votes, so each individual player's ability to affect the outcome is negligible.
- Imnimo 6y ago>The underlying assumption of such markets is that no player has more than one vote in the actual election, out of some 150 million or so votes, so each individual player's ability to affect the outcome is negligible. But this is not necessarily true. In the extreme case, a bettor could be one of nine Supreme Court justices. Or a participant in some sort of fantasy vote-rigging conspiracy. Or even a political insider tanking their candidate's own chances and betting against themselves. There's a pretty wide range of people who could plausibly (or not-so-plausibly in the conspiracy example) have more than a one-vote influence over the result of the election.
- tshaddox 6y agoSure, that’s why there are rules about when and how a CEO can sell their company’s stock (they generally have to announce the sale in advance). I’m not sure about the laws around Supreme Court justices, but I’m pretty sure it’s at least well-accepted that no judge should work a case when they have a personal interest in the outcome. I hope that would be grounds for removing a justice.
- jtxxwl2 6y ago>Or a participant in some sort of fantasy vote-rigging conspiracy. This is even more relevant outside of the US. In the US vote rigging conspiracies are impossible for some inexplicable reason, perhaps related to magical soil, but outside of the US they are a real concern.
- mvc 6y agoMay I be so bold as to suggest that not all vote rigging conspiracies are considered impossible. Just the ones that have been rejected by every court that has tested them.
- jtxxwl2 6y agoOne theory I've heard is that the magical soil in the US would compel the riggers to confess and/or provide evidence of their guilt to the courts and to the general public, rather than lying and/or concealing that evidence. In the rest of the world, courts often are not provided with relevant evidence or confessions, and therefore rigging remains possible.
- j4yav 6y agoDoesn't this path lead to believing anything you like, once you free yourself from the chains of needing evidence? I feel like I'd lose all track of what is real if I used this logic.
- jtxxwl2 6y agoMy understanding is that people in those other countries have not been lead down such a path, even though they know that sometimes people get away with stealing elections in their countries. I believe they use reason and inference when judging what is real, because all relevant hard evidence is not always available to them.
- jeremysalwen 6y ago> My understanding is that people in those other countries have not been lead down such a path Ah, that makes sense. They would require evidence to believe something. So for example, in an election where there was no evidence of fraud, they would not believe there was fraud. Such as the one which occurred in 2020 in the U.S.
- gbronner 6y agoThis is the explicit aim of prediction markets: to incentivize people with real knowledge to place bets, implicitly leaking information