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I think we're turning the corner. I was firmly in the "doomer" camp before, but there are strong reasons for optimism now. New cases, daily deaths, and hospit

I think we're turning the corner. I was firmly in the "doomer" camp before, but there are strong reasons for optimism now. New cases, daily deaths, and hospitalizations have all been falling rapidly for weeks now. The current estimate is for 50% of the US population to have received their first shot of vaccine by June 28: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine... That's at the current pace. The pace will almost certainly continue to accelerate. You also need to add in the unvaccinated who have immunity from prior infection. We're on track for a quasi-normal (as far as restrictions go) Summer, and there will be an enormous push to get kids back in school full time and people back in the office regularly right after Labor Day.

coldpie 6y ago
IMO Summer is a bit optimistic to be calling anything "normal," but I broadly agree we're near the end. Maybe by Fall or Winter we can hang out in bars again without feeling like we're killing somebody. In either case, now is not the time to give up. A few more months and we'll start seeing things ease up, I think. But we won't get there if we make things worse now. It sucks. Stay strong. Do what you can.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  > But we won't get there if we make things worse now. I have seen this claimed a lot, but is it really true? In some countries the authorities ended restrictions (or ostensibly maintained restrictions but stopped enforcement of them) because the population simply wasn't observing them. In those cases just "giving up" really worked in terms of the majority of people being able to get back to normal socializing.
  - jaywalk 6y ago
    The studies that have been done have shown that whatever benefits that lockdowns may have had were far outweighed by the toll they've taken on mental health and the economy. Short of literally locking everyone in their houses for 2-3 weeks (including essential workers) lockdowns just feel like they're doing something.
- ghaff 6y ago
  In the US, it's probably going to be more like late summer/early fall for truly widespread vaccination at which point, I have trouble believing things don't open back up because at that point, people are going to be "We've done what we can. F' it. We're not continuing like this indefinitely." But, truth be told, come late spring especially younger people are going to be out and about and restrictions are going to start to be widely ignored even if they're still officially in place.

coldpie 6y ago

IMO Summer is a bit optimistic to be calling anything "normal," but I broadly agree we're near the end. Maybe by Fall or Winter we can hang out in bars again without feeling like we're killing somebody. In either case, now is not the time to give up. A few more months and we'll start seeing things ease up, I think. But we won't get there if we make things worse now. It sucks. Stay strong. Do what you can.

Mediterraneo10 6y ago
> But we won't get there if we make things worse now. I have seen this claimed a lot, but is it really true? In some countries the authorities ended restrictions (or ostensibly maintained restrictions but stopped enforcement of them) because the population simply wasn't observing them. In those cases just "giving up" really worked in terms of the majority of people being able to get back to normal socializing.
- jaywalk 6y ago
  The studies that have been done have shown that whatever benefits that lockdowns may have had were far outweighed by the toll they've taken on mental health and the economy. Short of literally locking everyone in their houses for 2-3 weeks (including essential workers) lockdowns just feel like they're doing something.
ghaff 6y ago
In the US, it's probably going to be more like late summer/early fall for truly widespread vaccination at which point, I have trouble believing things don't open back up because at that point, people are going to be "We've done what we can. F' it. We're not continuing like this indefinitely." But, truth be told, come late spring especially younger people are going to be out and about and restrictions are going to start to be widely ignored even if they're still officially in place.