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I understand that global warming models predict more extreme events both hot and cold. However, at some point, empiricists will have to admit that global warmi

I understand that global warming models predict more extreme events both hot and cold. However, at some point, empiricists will have to admit that global warming models will have no statistical power. To that end, what evidence of weather patterns would you have to see to believe less in the global warming model? Would years of "less extreme event days" make you believe in the global warming model any less?

vitus 6y ago
I would need to see average global surface temperature being uncoupled from atmospheric CO2 levels, sustained over a long period of time. Given that we have hundreds of thousands of years of climate records [0], that seems like a tall order. One cold spell does not disprove global warming. While Dallas might be experiencing abnormally low temps, Jacksonville's seeing uncharacteristic highs (86F today). [0] https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/temperature-change https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/temperature-change
walrus01 6y ago
Global warming models have no statistical power? I'm sure this well documented increase in atmospheric co2 will have no effect, then. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ If you spend 30 seconds googling you'll see that communities in the high Canadian arctic, alaska and greenland have been setting new temperature records on a regular basis. And the subsidence and melt of coastal permafrost in some areas is increasing at a rate that will soon look like a hockey stick curve on a chart.
TheCoelacanth 6y ago
> To that end, what evidence of weather patterns would you have to see to believe less in the global warming model? Certainly a decreasing average global temperature would do it. However, we are seeing a consistent upward trend in the global average[1] even if some regions have lower than normal temperatures. [1] https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

vitus 6y ago

I would need to see average global surface temperature being uncoupled from atmospheric CO2 levels, sustained over a long period of time. Given that we have hundreds of thousands of years of climate records [0], that seems like a tall order. One cold spell does not disprove global warming. While Dallas might be experiencing abnormally low temps, Jacksonville's seeing uncharacteristic highs (86F today). [0] https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/temperature-change https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/temperature-change

walrus01 6y ago

Global warming models have no statistical power? I'm sure this well documented increase in atmospheric co2 will have no effect, then. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ If you spend 30 seconds googling you'll see that communities in the high Canadian arctic, alaska and greenland have been setting new temperature records on a regular basis. And the subsidence and melt of coastal permafrost in some areas is increasing at a rate that will soon look like a hockey stick curve on a chart.

TheCoelacanth 6y ago

> To that end, what evidence of weather patterns would you have to see to believe less in the global warming model? Certainly a decreasing average global temperature would do it. However, we are seeing a consistent upward trend in the global average[1] even if some regions have lower than normal temperatures. [1] https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/