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Correction: We know how much phased array antennas produced by other companies have historically sold for. They’re not commodities with uniform costs.

by rlt 6y ago

shaklee3 6y ago
No, they are commodity and we know how much they cost. SpaceX hasn't magically solved somehow decreasing the price of components they don't even make. They are paying over $1000 for a terminal.
- rlt 6y ago
  Cool, can you link me to the BOM cost analysis you’re referring to?
  - shaklee3 6y ago
    Sure! You mean every phased array that's ever been built? I suppose you have the BOM for the starlink terminal that spacex themselves have said is too expensive? I guess the fact that musk is behind it means the cost is magic and you can discount all prior technology, right?
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - rlt 6y ago
      The burden of proof is the on the one making absolute claims like yours.
      - shaklee3 6y ago
        Nope. The burden of proof is on those suggesting history is wrong. Phased array doesn't just drop 3x in price overnight. I'm waiting...
      - shaklee3 6y ago
        "DaveMosher reports @SpaceX has contracted @ST_World already "a few years ago" to build 1m #Starlink user terminals at $2400/pc, hence current hardware subsidy for beta testers is $1900. Article suggests, SpaceX may be paying $2.4 billion for the order. https://t.co/jak0hKQBGn https://t.co/jak0hKQBGn" So the current estimate published in business insider means you are about four times off based on the contract with ST, who we now know builds the chips inside of it. Please show your sources of a $500 phased array terminal.
        nickik 6y ago
        So we have $2.4 billion, but we don't know what this includes. This is likely for all the development, setting up the production system and so on. It could include a number of things. To just take that number an convert it unit cost like that doesn't make sense. SpaceX will need many more then just 1M terminals, what matters is the marginal cost per terminal. And if these numbers are accurate is also questionable.

Correction: We know how much phased array antennas produced by other companies have historically sold for. They’re not commodities with uniform costs.

by rlt 6y ago

Correction: We know how much phased array antennas produced by other companies have historically sold for. They’re not commodities with uniform costs.

shaklee3 6y ago

No, they are commodity and we know how much they cost. SpaceX hasn't magically solved somehow decreasing the price of components they don't even make. They are paying over $1000 for a terminal.

rlt 6y ago
Cool, can you link me to the BOM cost analysis you’re referring to?
- shaklee3 6y ago
  Sure! You mean every phased array that's ever been built? I suppose you have the BOM for the starlink terminal that spacex themselves have said is too expensive? I guess the fact that musk is behind it means the cost is magic and you can discount all prior technology, right?
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - rlt 6y ago
    The burden of proof is the on the one making absolute claims like yours.
    - shaklee3 6y ago
      Nope. The burden of proof is on those suggesting history is wrong. Phased array doesn't just drop 3x in price overnight. I'm waiting...
    - shaklee3 6y ago
      "DaveMosher reports @SpaceX has contracted @ST_World already "a few years ago" to build 1m #Starlink user terminals at $2400/pc, hence current hardware subsidy for beta testers is $1900. Article suggests, SpaceX may be paying $2.4 billion for the order. https://t.co/jak0hKQBGn https://t.co/jak0hKQBGn" So the current estimate published in business insider means you are about four times off based on the contract with ST, who we now know builds the chips inside of it. Please show your sources of a $500 phased array terminal.
      - nickik 6y ago
        So we have $2.4 billion, but we don't know what this includes. This is likely for all the development, setting up the production system and so on. It could include a number of things. To just take that number an convert it unit cost like that doesn't make sense. SpaceX will need many more then just 1M terminals, what matters is the marginal cost per terminal. And if these numbers are accurate is also questionable.