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"Bus driver seconds from driving over cliff, if only they hadn't turned to follow the road!" ... Nothing in this article seems specific to ERCOT's grid vs any

"Bus driver seconds from driving over cliff, if only they hadn't turned to follow the road!" ... Nothing in this article seems specific to ERCOT's grid vs any random ISO seeing a demand/supply mismatch.

macintux 6y ago
It does seem like a PR ploy to emphasize the fact that the operators did the right thing, and divert attention from the massive failures at the management level.
- hengheng 6y ago
  Being addicted to the hero's tale is what holds this country back the most.
TameAntelope 6y ago
A bus driver plans to be seconds from driving over a cliff, as that is the optimal way to drive in some cases. Not so, here. There was no need to be this close to the cliff.
- mywittyname 6y ago
  You really do have to drive close to the cliff when it comes to electricity generation. Producing too much power can damage the grid, and producing too little can damage the grid.
- blt 6y ago
  Given that they were already stuck with the hardware, is it possible that an optimistic approach was a reasonable way to manage the grid? Constantly monitor the status, be ready to shut down parts at any moment, but hope that you won't need to? I do not know the answer to this question. I know nothing about power grids. However, if they were following such a strategy, it's not surprising that they would end up disabling the system "seconds and minutes away from a catastrophic failure". That does not make the shutdown a last-minute precarious decision. It could be a preplanned response to a certain combination of failure conditions. The article fails to disambiguate between "react quickly with a planned decision" and "react quickly after analyzing the whole situation from scratch". The latter makes the operator seem more heroic. I agree with nimbius that some of the quotes lean towards the latter, but it would be better if the article removed the ambiguity.
- throwaheyy 6y ago
  Yes, there was. Supply and demand do have to be carefully balanced. Not an electrician but my understanding is that any imbalance starts to cause a deviation from the standard 60hz line frequency which is incredibly bad as some generating equipment will start to be “driven” by the grid while other equipment will be immediately and severely overloaded.
nimbius 6y ago
Read a little closer... >“The operators who took those actions to prevent a catastrophic blackout and much worse damage to our system, that was, I would say, the most difficult decision that had to be made throughout this whole event," Magness said. >"At the end of the day, our operators are highly trained and have the authority to make decisions that protect the reliability of the electric system," strongly implies ERCOT had absolutely no working plan to deal with this issue and instead relied on observance and skill of operators to save them from complete and total blackout. CAISO is an example of how this should work. it has detailed and thorough plans for high winds, inclement weather, earthquake, fires tsunami and flood. If there is an ISO flex alert for customers to save energy or a blackout is planned, its generally forecast with days to spare. Operators and plants are shut down and restarted in a coordinated, orderly fashion with excellent communication and transparency. CAISO even takes into account climate change and will mail out free coupons for bagged ice for users in a shut-down area along with maps to cooling centers or warming centers if need be. http://www.caiso.com/ http://www.caiso.com/
- enkid 6y ago
  While I agree with what you are saying,we should keep in mind that people tend to sensationalize and emphasize the human element. This in turn would make it seem like it is a closer and less procedures process than it really was. Bottom line, we should probably take a statement like that with a grain of salt.
  - munk-a 6y ago
    I don't have a great view of humanity as a whole - so if this disaster was avoided because we had particularly skilled people in the right place at the right time I applaud them but think that system really needs to be unbroken. By default I assume that someone in a position to make a critical decision at a critical time is going to be incompetent and won't trust a system that doesn't have a good set of safeguards - ideally regulated into being present.
    - rhodozelia 6y ago
nabla9 6y ago
Texas has made price/reliability tradeoff. Lower price with less mandatory contingencies. In other girds electricity costs little more and produced are required to maintain excess capacity and prepare for larger fluctuations in demand and weather. It costs little more, but is more reliable.
- munk-a 6y ago
  The real question now is, after some people have survived this disaster only by keeping their oven on to keep from freezing to death in their own homes - will we see a shift to pay that little bit extra to avoid this sort of a disaster in the future.
  - MattGaiser 6y ago
    > we see a shift to pay that little bit extra to avoid this sort of a disaster in the future. No, as Democrats want that. https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/rick-perry-says-texans-would-rather-be-without-power-for-days-than-have-more-fed-oversight https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/rick-perry-says-texans-woul...
    - seanp2k2 6y ago
      FTA: Perry, who also served as the Secretary of Energy in the Trump administration, made the comment in an interview with Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Looks like Perry is (R) since 1989 and (D) before that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Perry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Perry .
ryanmarsh 6y ago
Most people don’t realize how toothless ERCOT and MISO are. What enforcement mechanisms do the grid operators have? I’m under NDA so I can’t go into detail. I can say everybody at the ISO’s are just trying to hang on. The do a fantastic job. They don’t control spending on grid infra.

macintux 6y ago

It does seem like a PR ploy to emphasize the fact that the operators did the right thing, and divert attention from the massive failures at the management level.

hengheng 6y ago
Being addicted to the hero's tale is what holds this country back the most.

TameAntelope 6y ago

A bus driver plans to be seconds from driving over a cliff, as that is the optimal way to drive in some cases. Not so, here. There was no need to be this close to the cliff.

mywittyname 6y ago
You really do have to drive close to the cliff when it comes to electricity generation. Producing too much power can damage the grid, and producing too little can damage the grid.
blt 6y ago
Given that they were already stuck with the hardware, is it possible that an optimistic approach was a reasonable way to manage the grid? Constantly monitor the status, be ready to shut down parts at any moment, but hope that you won't need to? I do not know the answer to this question. I know nothing about power grids. However, if they were following such a strategy, it's not surprising that they would end up disabling the system "seconds and minutes away from a catastrophic failure". That does not make the shutdown a last-minute precarious decision. It could be a preplanned response to a certain combination of failure conditions. The article fails to disambiguate between "react quickly with a planned decision" and "react quickly after analyzing the whole situation from scratch". The latter makes the operator seem more heroic. I agree with nimbius that some of the quotes lean towards the latter, but it would be better if the article removed the ambiguity.
throwaheyy 6y ago
Yes, there was. Supply and demand do have to be carefully balanced. Not an electrician but my understanding is that any imbalance starts to cause a deviation from the standard 60hz line frequency which is incredibly bad as some generating equipment will start to be “driven” by the grid while other equipment will be immediately and severely overloaded.

nimbius 6y ago

Read a little closer... >“The operators who took those actions to prevent a catastrophic blackout and much worse damage to our system, that was, I would say, the most difficult decision that had to be made throughout this whole event," Magness said. >"At the end of the day, our operators are highly trained and have the authority to make decisions that protect the reliability of the electric system," strongly implies ERCOT had absolutely no working plan to deal with this issue and instead relied on observance and skill of operators to save them from complete and total blackout. CAISO is an example of how this should work. it has detailed and thorough plans for high winds, inclement weather, earthquake, fires tsunami and flood. If there is an ISO flex alert for customers to save energy or a blackout is planned, its generally forecast with days to spare. Operators and plants are shut down and restarted in a coordinated, orderly fashion with excellent communication and transparency. CAISO even takes into account climate change and will mail out free coupons for bagged ice for users in a shut-down area along with maps to cooling centers or warming centers if need be. http://www.caiso.com/ http://www.caiso.com/

enkid 6y ago
While I agree with what you are saying,we should keep in mind that people tend to sensationalize and emphasize the human element. This in turn would make it seem like it is a closer and less procedures process than it really was. Bottom line, we should probably take a statement like that with a grain of salt.
- munk-a 6y ago
  I don't have a great view of humanity as a whole - so if this disaster was avoided because we had particularly skilled people in the right place at the right time I applaud them but think that system really needs to be unbroken. By default I assume that someone in a position to make a critical decision at a critical time is going to be incompetent and won't trust a system that doesn't have a good set of safeguards - ideally regulated into being present.
  - rhodozelia 6y ago

nabla9 6y ago

Texas has made price/reliability tradeoff. Lower price with less mandatory contingencies. In other girds electricity costs little more and produced are required to maintain excess capacity and prepare for larger fluctuations in demand and weather. It costs little more, but is more reliable.

munk-a 6y ago
The real question now is, after some people have survived this disaster only by keeping their oven on to keep from freezing to death in their own homes - will we see a shift to pay that little bit extra to avoid this sort of a disaster in the future.
- MattGaiser 6y ago
  > we see a shift to pay that little bit extra to avoid this sort of a disaster in the future. No, as Democrats want that. https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/rick-perry-says-texans-would-rather-be-without-power-for-days-than-have-more-fed-oversight https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/rick-perry-says-texans-woul...
  - seanp2k2 6y ago
    FTA: Perry, who also served as the Secretary of Energy in the Trump administration, made the comment in an interview with Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Looks like Perry is (R) since 1989 and (D) before that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Perry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Perry .

ryanmarsh 6y ago

Most people don’t realize how toothless ERCOT and MISO are. What enforcement mechanisms do the grid operators have? I’m under NDA so I can’t go into detail. I can say everybody at the ISO’s are just trying to hang on. The do a fantastic job. They don’t control spending on grid infra.