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>I would say that what really matters is the interest rate. Interest rates are negative in many places. Germany has had negative interest rates for nearly 2 ye
by sleepysysadmin 6y ago
>I would say that what really matters is the interest rate.
Interest rates are negative in many places. Germany has had negative interest rates for nearly 2 years and 0% for over 5 years. Does that mean you have can infinite debt?
Worse yet, Germany was deflationary for nearly all of 2020 and are officially in a recession. Constitutionally Germany's government cannot run a deficit. As such they have reduced their government debt in the last several years. For all of 2020 however unemployment basically never moved.
Now lets look at Canada where the government has run historic record breaking levels of debt. In 2020 alone the central bank took on $400 billion in debt. The Canadian government stopped reporting their economic numbers during 2020 because lets be realistic...
GDP of Canada is roughly 1750 billion. 14% unemployment. That $400 billion does mean that Canada was not deflationary.
So the government took on $400 billion in debt and how much did GDP increase? Surely we should see 15-20% gdp increase? Nope. We see -17%.
>It is not at all clear if such a low level of interest rates can be sustained forever.
YTD on interest rates is +35% or so. Which is interesting because inflation targets are well below target.
>There is another risk of having interest rate too low: zombie corporations can be kept alive longer by borrowing, unprofitable projects too.
Well we're seeing it all over. So many countries are over leveraged and bubbles are everywhere. They are going to pop.