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Startup is not a lottery. Working for startup is risky, but the key is to build a system that increases your accumulated probability of success -- this is exact

Startup is not a lottery. Working for startup is risky, but the key is to build a system that increases your accumulated probability of success -- this is exactly why it's important to live in the bay area and work for some startups there, at least before the Covid-19. You get to see a large number of people who didn't fund any company, but still became financially independent or built an explosive career by choosing to join the right companies at the right time. You get to see how those people make their choices. You get to see how those people decide to jump ship. You get to build a social circle where you learn lots of first-hand information about startups. Yes, it's still risky to join a startup, but no it's not a lottery. The chance of being rewarded handsomely is orders of magnitude higher than buying lottery.

jjeaff 6y ago
I wonder how many people each year make at least $1m from startup equity appreciation (that is actually liquid). Because it's between 1500 and 2000 people that win at least $1m in lotteries in the US every year. Granted, lots more people play the lottery than start or join a startup, but it's an interesting comparison.
- g9yuayon 6y ago
  I'm not sure if the calculation is correct. 2000 people winning lotteries out of at least millions of people, right? Yet in the startup word, it is thousands of people out a few hundreds of thousands? Another factor to consider is that your equity keeps giving, while lottery is a one-off deal.
  - CRConrad 6y ago
    But the GP's point pretty obviously wasn't a calculation of percentages, just comparing absolute numbers. As a percentage of the population it also holds, since that is the same whether you're looking at start-ups or rhe lottery. Another way to look at it is ease of entry: If you're already playing the lottery, also joining a start-up isn't all that easy (as you said yourself, the number who do is much lower). If you're already working at a start-up, OTOH, also playing the lottery...
- TuringNYC 6y ago
  If you optimize for cash comp, you can invest the "extra" cash into thousands or even tens of thousands of lottery tickets of your choosing. They could be actual lottery tickets, or deep-out-of-the-money call options on FAANG or options on QQQ.

jjeaff 6y ago

I wonder how many people each year make at least $1m from startup equity appreciation (that is actually liquid). Because it's between 1500 and 2000 people that win at least $1m in lotteries in the US every year. Granted, lots more people play the lottery than start or join a startup, but it's an interesting comparison.

g9yuayon 6y ago
I'm not sure if the calculation is correct. 2000 people winning lotteries out of at least millions of people, right? Yet in the startup word, it is thousands of people out a few hundreds of thousands? Another factor to consider is that your equity keeps giving, while lottery is a one-off deal.
- CRConrad 6y ago
  But the GP's point pretty obviously wasn't a calculation of percentages, just comparing absolute numbers. As a percentage of the population it also holds, since that is the same whether you're looking at start-ups or rhe lottery. Another way to look at it is ease of entry: If you're already playing the lottery, also joining a start-up isn't all that easy (as you said yourself, the number who do is much lower). If you're already working at a start-up, OTOH, also playing the lottery...
TuringNYC 6y ago
If you optimize for cash comp, you can invest the "extra" cash into thousands or even tens of thousands of lottery tickets of your choosing. They could be actual lottery tickets, or deep-out-of-the-money call options on FAANG or options on QQQ.