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Vlad Tenev's "Black Swan", "One In 3 million event is unmodellable". This guy just reeks of deceptive corporate speak. He even looks like Martin Shkreli.
by nightowl_games 6y ago
Vlad Tenev's "Black Swan", "One In 3 million event is unmodellable".
This guy just reeks of deceptive corporate speak.
He even looks like Martin Shkreli.
- fractionalhare 6y agoYeah. Calling something a five-sigma event loses meaning if there haven't been anywhere near enough time intervals (here: market days) to validate that thesis. Here is a decent paper on the topic of n-sigma events: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1103.5672.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1103.5672.pdf
- 6gvONxR4sf7o 6y agoNot just that, you have to define the independent units. A 1 in 35M event is crazy over 35M days. It's less crazy over 35M trades. Without knowing which it is, 1 in 35M doesn't say anything.
- nightowl_games 6y agoTenev's "Black Swan" comment is even more ludicrous given that we are currently in the midst of the COVID pandemic which made the Black Swan phrase trendy and known. Other recent black swans: - Texas freezing over - Beirut explosion It seems as though these "black swan" events are happening more and more rapidly.
- monksy 6y agoI'm pretty sure that Martin Shkreli would be on the side of the investors and put money in.