6 ms·

U.S. life expectancy falls by a full year

60 points by prostoalex 6y ago

jobigoud 6y ago
There was this concept of longevity escape velocity where the life expectancy continually increases by one year every year. Could there be the inverse phenomenon? A crash where life expectancy loses a year every year? What would that look like on the age pyramid?
- bhelkey 6y ago
  From the article: > New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Thursday showed that life expectancy in the U.S. dropped by a full year in first half of 2020, yet another reminder of the devastating toll Covid-19 has exacted. Because this is attributed to Covid-19, this sharp drop will (hopefully) not impact life expectancy for years to come.
  - mcv 6y ago
    Covid-19 seems to have long term impact on lungs and general health, so this impact might still linger for years to come.
    - okprod 6y ago
      Yea this is a worry of mine since I already have reduced lung capacity, but the long-term effects seem to be less widespread.
  - Killakwinn 6y ago
    Really interesting that we're able to make these long-term projections based on 6 months of extremely heterogenous data. Regardless, I don't think anyone would argue that the downstream effects of Covid (both known and unknown) will impact long-term health.
- hammock 6y ago
  Squashes the pyramid
legerdemain 6y ago
Latinos in the US have a substantially higher life expectancy than non-Latino whites? That's kind of a surprise. What's less of a surprise is Black people having a life expectancy that's almost 6 years lower.
- adamhearn 6y ago
  Why is it less of a surprise?
  - mcv 6y ago
    More poverty, combined with expensive health care. Also, apparently black people are more likely to get shot.
    - bobthepanda 6y ago
      Also, there have been studies that show that doctors generally consider black people to have higher pain tolerance and also doubt their reported symptoms more. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/racial-disparities-seen-in-how-doctors-treat-pain-even-among-children/2020/07/10/265e77d6-b626-11ea-aca5-ebb63d27e1ff_story.html?outputType=amp https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/racial-disparities-see...
      - mcv 6y ago
        They also do that with women, apparently.
        lofi_lory 6y ago
        Tho, one is a myth and straight racism; the other comes with women being chronically understudied. E.g. heart attack symptoms are different, some medication does work differently, women do need less vaccines, and so on. The mere assumption of "black" people's biology to differ much, is uneducated and bigoted legacy crap, while women really do have a different metabolism and body then men, which is also known. Not saying one failure is better than the other, really... just different issues.
hammock 6y ago
How can we blame a >1% decrease in life expectancy on a disease which according to the CDC (for under 70's) has a <0.5% infection fatality rate?
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- cryptoz 6y ago
  My understanding is that many survivors have long lasting physical hardships that impact their day to day health significantly, even a year after infection. Other second and third order effects could account for this as well.
  - shakezula 6y ago
    People really don’t understand that 25% of people who contract Covid-19 have long term effects from it. It can shred your heart, it can ruin your lung capacity, there are reports of seizures in a small portion, and yet people will talk about how “it’s just a flu.” Honestly, the long term effects scare me far more than the infection itself.
    - g00gler 6y ago
      Source?
      - shakezula 6y ago
        The CDC's website lists specific long-term complaints. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.... This one gives a number of 50% that exhibit long term symptoms, but I don't believe that 50% number is what I was referring to in my earlier comment. I believe the 20-25% number I was referencing was for specifically long term physical damage, not just symptoms. https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/what-are-the-long-lasting-effects-of-covid-19 https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/what-... Highlights from the article: - "Some previously healthy people who survived COVID have been left with evidence of injury to the heart and kidneys" A close friend of mine caught COVID-19 in November and still can't climb a flight of stairs without serious effort and labored breathing. They were an otherwise perfectly health mid-20s male with no other health issues. It absolutely thrashed their lungs and lung capacity. - "[...] doctors around the world were reporting various brain conditions in people with COVID." A non-trivial amount of people who catch COVID have developed seizures. Whether it's because of COVID or just exacerbated by the virus is unclear yet, but there is a clear relationship between the two that will probably become clearer with more time and data. - "There also are people who survived COVID and have no evidence of injury to the heart, kidneys, or brain — but who nevertheless have not returned to full health. They still have fatigue, body aches, shortness of breath, difficulty concentrating, inability to exercise, headache, and trouble sleeping. Some studies find that more than 50% of people who "recovered" from COVID remain hobbled by these symptoms three months later." Even if you do recover with no discernible damage to your body, there are people who maintain symptoms for months afterwards. There are reports of some people having 103+ degree fevers for weeks on end after catching it. Morbidity of the virus is decreasing, and with the vaccine in full swing we're getting a grip on things, but people really do downplay how serious catching the virus was. It's not just a flu, y'all.

60 points by prostoalex 6y ago

There was this concept of longevity escape velocity where the life expectancy continually increases by one year every year. Could there be the inverse phenomenon? A crash where life expectancy loses a year every year? What would that look like on the age pyramid?

bhelkey 6y ago
From the article: > New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Thursday showed that life expectancy in the U.S. dropped by a full year in first half of 2020, yet another reminder of the devastating toll Covid-19 has exacted. Because this is attributed to Covid-19, this sharp drop will (hopefully) not impact life expectancy for years to come.
- mcv 6y ago
  Covid-19 seems to have long term impact on lungs and general health, so this impact might still linger for years to come.
  - okprod 6y ago
    Yea this is a worry of mine since I already have reduced lung capacity, but the long-term effects seem to be less widespread.
- Killakwinn 6y ago
  Really interesting that we're able to make these long-term projections based on 6 months of extremely heterogenous data. Regardless, I don't think anyone would argue that the downstream effects of Covid (both known and unknown) will impact long-term health.
hammock 6y ago
Squashes the pyramid

legerdemain 6y ago

Latinos in the US have a substantially higher life expectancy than non-Latino whites? That's kind of a surprise. What's less of a surprise is Black people having a life expectancy that's almost 6 years lower.

adamhearn 6y ago
Why is it less of a surprise?
- mcv 6y ago
  More poverty, combined with expensive health care. Also, apparently black people are more likely to get shot.
  - bobthepanda 6y ago
    Also, there have been studies that show that doctors generally consider black people to have higher pain tolerance and also doubt their reported symptoms more. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/racial-disparities-seen-in-how-doctors-treat-pain-even-among-children/2020/07/10/265e77d6-b626-11ea-aca5-ebb63d27e1ff_story.html?outputType=amp https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/racial-disparities-see...
    - mcv 6y ago
      They also do that with women, apparently.
      - lofi_lory 6y ago
        Tho, one is a myth and straight racism; the other comes with women being chronically understudied. E.g. heart attack symptoms are different, some medication does work differently, women do need less vaccines, and so on. The mere assumption of "black" people's biology to differ much, is uneducated and bigoted legacy crap, while women really do have a different metabolism and body then men, which is also known. Not saying one failure is better than the other, really... just different issues.

hammock 6y ago

How can we blame a >1% decrease in life expectancy on a disease which according to the CDC (for under 70's) has a <0.5% infection fatality rate?

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
cryptoz 6y ago
My understanding is that many survivors have long lasting physical hardships that impact their day to day health significantly, even a year after infection. Other second and third order effects could account for this as well.
- shakezula 6y ago
  People really don’t understand that 25% of people who contract Covid-19 have long term effects from it. It can shred your heart, it can ruin your lung capacity, there are reports of seizures in a small portion, and yet people will talk about how “it’s just a flu.” Honestly, the long term effects scare me far more than the infection itself.
  - g00gler 6y ago
    Source?
    - shakezula 6y ago
      The CDC's website lists specific long-term complaints. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.... This one gives a number of 50% that exhibit long term symptoms, but I don't believe that 50% number is what I was referring to in my earlier comment. I believe the 20-25% number I was referencing was for specifically long term physical damage, not just symptoms. https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/what-are-the-long-lasting-effects-of-covid-19 https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/what-... Highlights from the article: - "Some previously healthy people who survived COVID have been left with evidence of injury to the heart and kidneys" A close friend of mine caught COVID-19 in November and still can't climb a flight of stairs without serious effort and labored breathing. They were an otherwise perfectly health mid-20s male with no other health issues. It absolutely thrashed their lungs and lung capacity. - "[...] doctors around the world were reporting various brain conditions in people with COVID." A non-trivial amount of people who catch COVID have developed seizures. Whether it's because of COVID or just exacerbated by the virus is unclear yet, but there is a clear relationship between the two that will probably become clearer with more time and data. - "There also are people who survived COVID and have no evidence of injury to the heart, kidneys, or brain — but who nevertheless have not returned to full health. They still have fatigue, body aches, shortness of breath, difficulty concentrating, inability to exercise, headache, and trouble sleeping. Some studies find that more than 50% of people who "recovered" from COVID remain hobbled by these symptoms three months later." Even if you do recover with no discernible damage to your body, there are people who maintain symptoms for months afterwards. There are reports of some people having 103+ degree fevers for weeks on end after catching it. Morbidity of the virus is decreasing, and with the vaccine in full swing we're getting a grip on things, but people really do downplay how serious catching the virus was. It's not just a flu, y'all.