Ask HN: Best practices of trading via orders? Is Bayes theorem applicable?

When cryptocurrencies has appeared, trading became popular. I do not appreciate margin trading and any technics except market order because these are hard to understand and automate. But I want to grok market order trading for writing a traiding bot which will not lose my money. Any ideas or textbook about that? Especially I am interested in ways which involves the Bayes theorem before doing any decision. Is there any ways to put information about risk of the next deal in the formula?