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The argument there starts from bitcoin futures being worth more than bitcoin today. What's wrong with the simple explanation that people expect the price of bit

• arcticbull 6y ago
  This is actually covered in the write-up but the answer is arbitrage. In a perfect world, I'd simply short-sell the future at a 2% premium over the spot price, then I'd buy a bitcoin on the open market. This pushes the price of Bitcoin up and the price of the future down. The gap closes to roughly zero, an I get 2% for my service.
  • anonymoushn 6y ago
    Hello, The reason that people don't take the 20%/year arb is that they are taking arbs that pay more than 20%/year. An additional reason, at some venues, is that the venue does not allow you to use 1 BTC to fully collateralize 1 short BTC future. At those venues, if you do this trade and the price of BTC goes up, you begin to pay interest to borrow dollars for your paper loss on the futures half of the trade. Edit: for CME in particular, I don't know, but I sort of expect that you cannot post collateral in crypto.