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There's not much substance to this article. The author declares a few opinions, but doesn't take us through his reasoning (let alone evidence). I'm even tempt
by omginternets 6y ago
There's not much substance to this article. The author declares a few opinions, but doesn't take us through his reasoning (let alone evidence).
I'm even tempted to call this FUD, but that usually implies some sort of agenda. I don't even see that, here.
- leprechaun1066 6y agoHe basically said, "Everything that has a beginning has an end." But with way too many words.
- mattmanser 6y agoIt's Fred Wilson, you've been here long enough to see plenty of his articles. It's the point of view of a SV VC. Literally A...VC.
- nostrademons 6y agoTechnically, he's a NYC VC.
- fuzzfactor 6y agoThe old-fashioned kind.
- 01100011 6y agoThe fact that such an empty article made it to the front page suggests to me that this is a topic HN commenters desperately want to discuss. The problem is that we just keep saying the same things without gaining any new insight. Threads like this become clogged with armchair economists looking to cram elementary Austrian/Keynesian/MMT down our throats and we all walk away deeper in the hole of misunderstanding. Do rates have to stay low forever? Is a 'beautiful deleveraging' possible? Will the dollar tank in favor of BTC/Gold/RMB or some future currency or basket of currencies? Will we see real inflation or will the dollar's reserve status consume all of the extra money supply? Will it be stagflation? Will the fed run out of policy tools to control the economy? Has the economy been running on fumes for years, propped up by easy money since '08? Will asset prices become normalized or return to earth? Will millenial demographics save us in 2023? Etc., etc., etc... If any of us had convincing answers to any of these questions, we'd be rich. I don't think anyone really knows what will happen, but we're all convinced something big is going to happen.
- 0xB31B1B 6y agoThis is Fred Wilsons blog, he is a very accomplished VC, founder of Union Square Ventures. He is basically the biggest tech investor in NYC. His blog reaches the front page every time he posts because his is notable
- groby_b 6y agoPast performance does not guarantee future results. Not even for Fred Wilson. This one is anemic, and upvoting "because Fred Wilson" is a poor reason to upvote an article.
- zepto 6y ago> This one is anemic Would you care to share your analysis with us?
- omginternets 6y agoHe doesn't have to. Point us to a single insight in the article. We'll wait.
- zepto 6y agoI don’t have to. The article is quite simple. If you think it’s bullshit, feel free to explain why.
- omginternets 6y agoYou misunderstand. We don't see bullshit, we see a vacuum. If we are mistaken, please point to something of substance. We unfortunately cannot prove a negative.
- zepto 6y agoIt seems like you are saying you can’t read. Are you not able to make sense of what the article says? I don’t think copying and pasting it here will help that.
- choppaface 6y agoI wouldn't call it FUD, but I would call it highly manipulative. There was a huge round of VC investments so far in 2021 and some people are now getting fidgety about interest rates. VCs make money by flipping deals. The author has HUGE financial incentive for people to continue to be open to risk. The only reason he cites the 1-year is because the graph supports his point and he has a lot to gain from coaxing readers who don't know about other things like the yield curve or credit spreads or ....