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This is meta/tangent, but I've had similar conversations a few times recently. Seems to be in the zeitgeist. Re: everyone starts deciding what they believe to

This is meta/tangent, but I've had similar conversations a few times recently. Seems to be in the zeitgeist. Re: everyone starts deciding what they believe to be truth within 48 hours of the outage. Maybe, hopefully... the epidemic is humbling us. It's been significant and long lasting enough to rub our noses in whatever opinions we so brashly got behind too early. Professors and peasants alike. We're more likely to stop and say "I don't know." The classic example of this is governments taking credit/blame for economic stuff. Low unemployment, high gdp, etc. Current government decisions are really unlikely to be affecting these, because stuff takes time. Meanwhile, short term data about the economy is both uncertain and fairly useless even if it wasn't. The whole thing is so disingenuous, yet I doubt there has ever been an democratic election where this wasn't a major factor.

shireboy 6y ago
I have yet to see any of my friends and definitely not politicians (of any stripe) humbled about anything pandemic. If anything there’s a doubling down and mental gymnastics to explain away inconsistencies or hide lack of knowledge. I’d love to share your optimism- seriously- do you have an example in mind?
- dalbasal 6y ago
  Test the waters again maybe. I've been feeling this change pretty recently. I'm not predicting any kind of revolution, and this is all at the margin. I don't expect TV takestars or politicians to be the vanguard. That said, I have noticed people pondering the unknowability of it all. More interest in margin or error equivalents. Stuff like that. Example: Covid conversations (the one I have in mind was with my aunt) 6 months ago were along the lines of "the government did X, Y happened." Now, it's wondering whether X impacted Y... counterfactual thinking. I have yet to encounter this in my work/corporate life though, and honestly, that's where it's most needed.
cactus2093 6y ago
Nah, it’s very easy to selectively forget what you ended up being wrong about and remember what you got right (or close enough to pretend it was right). I was wearing an n95 mask in the grocery store starting March 1st last year, there was no reason at that point to think it wouldn’t help and I still can’t comprehend why someone like Fauci who said in no uncertain terms not to wear a mask, it won’t help never faced any repercussions. I probably got a lot of things wrong that I don’t really remember. I still am a bit ocd about hand washing and hand sanitizer even though covid seems not to spread via surfaces very much, except for when it does, and I’ll probably keep doing that until the pandemic is over just because I have been. My takeaway from this past year is certainly not that humans are rational or good at accountability.
- helen___keller 6y ago
  > I still can’t comprehend why someone like Fauci who said in no uncertain terms not to wear a mask, it won’t help never faced any repercussions May I ask what exactly you were hoping for here?
  - khrbrt 6y ago
    Being fired or resigning in disgrace. If my bad advice cost thousands of lives, I would at least retire from public life.
    - cactus2093 6y ago
      Or at the very least, not continuing to be worshiped as some sort of saint.
      - geoduck14 6y ago
        Or maybe, like, an apology. Or an effort to not repeat future lies (e.g. the effort required to achieve heard immunity)
    - helen___keller 6y ago
      Okay, well let's start with firing, and let's assume since his bad advice was in march 2020 then any repercussions would happen within the next few months when it became obvious that masks should definitely be worn. The two people with the power to fire Dr Fauci are the NIH director, and the president (via his power over the NIH director). In fact by summer 2020 Dr Fauci had earned the ire of the White House, but for essentially the opposite reason (this was when the White House was still trying to underplay the pandemic as not-that-bad, going-away-soon, it'll be an Easter miracle, etc). As such the NIH director aligned with Dr Fauci against the White house, and Fauci was seen as the "defender of wearing masks" or somesuch. For example, consider the following article: https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/francis-collins-defends-fauci/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/francis-collins-defends-... I don't think it's impossible to have seen Fauci fired if that's how Trump played it politically. But it's not. Consider the following: > Trump, in particular, has openly disagreed with Fauci’s guidance on whether fans should attend professional football games in the fall [...] > In recent weeks, as the U.S. outbreak has spiraled out of control, Fauci has urged Americans to wear masks and to practice social distancing. The White House, however, has refused to amplify his advice, and instead has escalated its attacks on him. The white house was trying to stimulate the economy by reassuring people it's okay to go out and spend money. Attacking Dr. Fauci for not being serious enough about masks sends the opposite signal. Hence, Fauci became the "wear a mask" guy (as viewed in opposition to the White House). Thus, everyone forgot / didn't care that early on he was wrong about masks. Hope that cleared things up.

shireboy 6y ago

I have yet to see any of my friends and definitely not politicians (of any stripe) humbled about anything pandemic. If anything there’s a doubling down and mental gymnastics to explain away inconsistencies or hide lack of knowledge. I’d love to share your optimism- seriously- do you have an example in mind?

dalbasal 6y ago
Test the waters again maybe. I've been feeling this change pretty recently. I'm not predicting any kind of revolution, and this is all at the margin. I don't expect TV takestars or politicians to be the vanguard. That said, I have noticed people pondering the unknowability of it all. More interest in margin or error equivalents. Stuff like that. Example: Covid conversations (the one I have in mind was with my aunt) 6 months ago were along the lines of "the government did X, Y happened." Now, it's wondering whether X impacted Y... counterfactual thinking. I have yet to encounter this in my work/corporate life though, and honestly, that's where it's most needed.

cactus2093 6y ago

Nah, it’s very easy to selectively forget what you ended up being wrong about and remember what you got right (or close enough to pretend it was right). I was wearing an n95 mask in the grocery store starting March 1st last year, there was no reason at that point to think it wouldn’t help and I still can’t comprehend why someone like Fauci who said in no uncertain terms not to wear a mask, it won’t help never faced any repercussions. I probably got a lot of things wrong that I don’t really remember. I still am a bit ocd about hand washing and hand sanitizer even though covid seems not to spread via surfaces very much, except for when it does, and I’ll probably keep doing that until the pandemic is over just because I have been. My takeaway from this past year is certainly not that humans are rational or good at accountability.

helen___keller 6y ago
> I still can’t comprehend why someone like Fauci who said in no uncertain terms not to wear a mask, it won’t help never faced any repercussions May I ask what exactly you were hoping for here?
- khrbrt 6y ago
  Being fired or resigning in disgrace. If my bad advice cost thousands of lives, I would at least retire from public life.
  - cactus2093 6y ago
    Or at the very least, not continuing to be worshiped as some sort of saint.
    - geoduck14 6y ago
      Or maybe, like, an apology. Or an effort to not repeat future lies (e.g. the effort required to achieve heard immunity)
  - helen___keller 6y ago
    Okay, well let's start with firing, and let's assume since his bad advice was in march 2020 then any repercussions would happen within the next few months when it became obvious that masks should definitely be worn. The two people with the power to fire Dr Fauci are the NIH director, and the president (via his power over the NIH director). In fact by summer 2020 Dr Fauci had earned the ire of the White House, but for essentially the opposite reason (this was when the White House was still trying to underplay the pandemic as not-that-bad, going-away-soon, it'll be an Easter miracle, etc). As such the NIH director aligned with Dr Fauci against the White house, and Fauci was seen as the "defender of wearing masks" or somesuch. For example, consider the following article: https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/francis-collins-defends-fauci/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/francis-collins-defends-... I don't think it's impossible to have seen Fauci fired if that's how Trump played it politically. But it's not. Consider the following: > Trump, in particular, has openly disagreed with Fauci’s guidance on whether fans should attend professional football games in the fall [...] > In recent weeks, as the U.S. outbreak has spiraled out of control, Fauci has urged Americans to wear masks and to practice social distancing. The White House, however, has refused to amplify his advice, and instead has escalated its attacks on him. The white house was trying to stimulate the economy by reassuring people it's okay to go out and spend money. Attacking Dr. Fauci for not being serious enough about masks sends the opposite signal. Hence, Fauci became the "wear a mask" guy (as viewed in opposition to the White House). Thus, everyone forgot / didn't care that early on he was wrong about masks. Hope that cleared things up.