3 ms·

Wait so they're claiming that, today (or roughly today), we could basically do everything through synthetic fuel (Not requiring much, if any, retooling of exist

by rtpg 6y ago

Wait so they're claiming that, today (or roughly today), we could basically do everything through synthetic fuel (Not requiring much, if any, retooling of existing infrastructure) and basically have major CO2 reductions? This seems like a major no brainer? Especially if you start getting into "places with a bunch of sunlight but no natural petroleum can now turn into energy magnates"? This seems like an extremely powerful idea

konschubert 6y ago
It is, but it's not cost-competitive right now. "E-fuel" is still much more expensive to produce than fossil fuel.
- rtpg 6y ago
  ........oh, duh. Right. Yes. Does anyone know the current relative prices here (or any research on theoretical price limits given enough scale?) Is it possible that in our lifetimes we could see something similar to the major drops in other renewables? EDIT: From an EU report: "E-fuel costs are currently relatively high (up to 7 euros/litre) but are expected to decrease over time due to economies of scale, learning effects and an anticipated reduction in the renewable electricity price;this is expected to lead to a cost of 1–3 euros/litre (without taxes) in 2050.3The cost of e-fuels could therefore be 1–3 times higher than the cost of fossil fuels by 2050." 7 euros/litre is _very costly_, and the reduction of price is predicated on some massive drops in solar pricing which seam unreasonable. OTOH fuel is important and if there's less of it it'll be more costly! (https://www.concawe.eu/wp-content/uploads/E-fuels-article.pdf https://www.concawe.eu/wp-content/uploads/E-fuels-article.pd...)
  - azernik 6y ago
    Reduction of price isn't predicated only on massive drops in renewable energy prices - a lot of the projected drops also come from drops in the non-electricity cost. (That EU paper gives an energy efficiency of 40% for the electricity -> gasoline conversion, which my gut feeling says is pretty close to the theoretical maximum.) By my rough current calculations (average EU non-household electricity costs at 8 eurocents per kWh pre-tax, 0.12 after-tax; times 9.1kWh/L energy density of gasoline; divided by 0.4 conversion efficiency) electricity costs are only about 2.5 euros/L out of that 7 euros/L total. Could probably be brought down to 2 euros/L by concentrating production in places with plentiful renewables, like how aluminum production is currently concentrated in Iceland. That leaves 4-5 euros/L coming from non-electricity costs, where cost reductions will be easier but need to be more drastic. Even 3 euros/L is still really expensive, but only about 100-150% above the pre-pandemic peak. Anyone who doesn't really need that specific energy or energy density would still have a very strong incentive to go electric, but there would still be some viable (though more expensive) business model for mass/volume-constrained applications like air travel.
    - rtpg 6y ago
      to be honest it feels like a huge boost would be for there to be a mandate for airliners and the like to start buying e-fuels (since fuel is like 10% of the current costs, if that triples we would be looking at maybe 20-30% increase in prices? Which is obviously a lot but to be honest feels pretty manageable). Like on some sliding scale over time. So long as standard fossil fuels are on the market and cheap nobody has much incentive to go the other way.

by rtpg 6y ago

konschubert 6y ago

It is, but it's not cost-competitive right now. "E-fuel" is still much more expensive to produce than fossil fuel.

rtpg 6y ago
........oh, duh. Right. Yes. Does anyone know the current relative prices here (or any research on theoretical price limits given enough scale?) Is it possible that in our lifetimes we could see something similar to the major drops in other renewables? EDIT: From an EU report: "E-fuel costs are currently relatively high (up to 7 euros/litre) but are expected to decrease over time due to economies of scale, learning effects and an anticipated reduction in the renewable electricity price;this is expected to lead to a cost of 1–3 euros/litre (without taxes) in 2050.3The cost of e-fuels could therefore be 1–3 times higher than the cost of fossil fuels by 2050." 7 euros/litre is _very costly_, and the reduction of price is predicated on some massive drops in solar pricing which seam unreasonable. OTOH fuel is important and if there's less of it it'll be more costly! (https://www.concawe.eu/wp-content/uploads/E-fuels-article.pdf https://www.concawe.eu/wp-content/uploads/E-fuels-article.pd...)
- azernik 6y ago
  Reduction of price isn't predicated only on massive drops in renewable energy prices - a lot of the projected drops also come from drops in the non-electricity cost. (That EU paper gives an energy efficiency of 40% for the electricity -> gasoline conversion, which my gut feeling says is pretty close to the theoretical maximum.) By my rough current calculations (average EU non-household electricity costs at 8 eurocents per kWh pre-tax, 0.12 after-tax; times 9.1kWh/L energy density of gasoline; divided by 0.4 conversion efficiency) electricity costs are only about 2.5 euros/L out of that 7 euros/L total. Could probably be brought down to 2 euros/L by concentrating production in places with plentiful renewables, like how aluminum production is currently concentrated in Iceland. That leaves 4-5 euros/L coming from non-electricity costs, where cost reductions will be easier but need to be more drastic. Even 3 euros/L is still really expensive, but only about 100-150% above the pre-pandemic peak. Anyone who doesn't really need that specific energy or energy density would still have a very strong incentive to go electric, but there would still be some viable (though more expensive) business model for mass/volume-constrained applications like air travel.
  - rtpg 6y ago
    to be honest it feels like a huge boost would be for there to be a mandate for airliners and the like to start buying e-fuels (since fuel is like 10% of the current costs, if that triples we would be looking at maybe 20-30% increase in prices? Which is obviously a lot but to be honest feels pretty manageable). Like on some sliding scale over time. So long as standard fossil fuels are on the market and cheap nobody has much incentive to go the other way.