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That model appears to be nonsense. There’s no “stock to flow” price relationship in economics or investing. The author made it up for their piece, looked at gol

by graeme 6y ago

That model appears to be nonsense. There’s no “stock to flow” price relationship in economics or investing. The author made it up for their piece, looked at gold, and extrapolated. They say in the piece: > Now contrast Bitcoin's dynamic stock-to-flow with Gold's, who's stock-to-flow of 62 is not likely in increase. As a thought experiment, try to imagine what would happen to the price of gold if were to be halved one day? That did happen, in 1940! Gold production fell in half for years. And the gold price subsequently fell.

intev 6y ago
> That did happen, in 1940! Gold production fell in half for years. And the gold price subsequently fell. Can I see evidence of this? Using this[1] paper and this[2] article I can see gold production by no means halved and gold prices did not fall. [1] https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/E15.pdf https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/E15.pdf [2] https://www.thebalance.com/gold-price-history-3305646 https://www.thebalance.com/gold-price-history-3305646
- graeme 6y ago
  I was going off this chart. Looking more closely, somewhat less than half but close https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6d/World_Gold_Production_1900-2014.png/800px-World_Gold_Production_1900-2014.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6d/Wo... However, your first source indicates a drop substantially less than half, so perhaps the chart I looked at is not correct? For the price I was looking at an inflation adjusted chart. In constant dollars the price seems to have stayed the same. Typing this out I now realized this must have been the gold standard and my comment was completely incorrect on this point re: gold. The price fell in real terms as it was pegged. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Gold-nominal-constant-usd.svg/800px-Gold-nominal-constant-usd.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Go...

by graeme 6y ago

intev 6y ago

> That did happen, in 1940! Gold production fell in half for years. And the gold price subsequently fell. Can I see evidence of this? Using this[1] paper and this[2] article I can see gold production by no means halved and gold prices did not fall. [1] https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/E15.pdf https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/E15.pdf [2] https://www.thebalance.com/gold-price-history-3305646 https://www.thebalance.com/gold-price-history-3305646

graeme 6y ago
I was going off this chart. Looking more closely, somewhat less than half but close https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6d/World_Gold_Production_1900-2014.png/800px-World_Gold_Production_1900-2014.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6d/Wo... However, your first source indicates a drop substantially less than half, so perhaps the chart I looked at is not correct? For the price I was looking at an inflation adjusted chart. In constant dollars the price seems to have stayed the same. Typing this out I now realized this must have been the gold standard and my comment was completely incorrect on this point re: gold. The price fell in real terms as it was pegged. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Gold-nominal-constant-usd.svg/800px-Gold-nominal-constant-usd.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Go...