5 ms·

I'm wondering how rolling outages on the proposed schedules were supposed to work in this situation. If they gave everyone power 50% of the time, everyone woul

I'm wondering how rolling outages on the proposed schedules were supposed to work in this situation. If they gave everyone power 50% of the time, everyone would crank everything they have to the max during those periods to get some heat into their buildings. Unless their total ability to consume energy is less than 2x their average consumption, it's not going to help. To have any effect on overall power consumption, they first have to overcome this effect, and reduce power availability so people can't just shift the load. Depending on creativity (if you have an electric tumble dryer... that's a fan heater), I bet many people could easily 10x their average power consumption. If I had power for a short period of time and cold was an issue, I'd be dumping ~10 kW into water immediately (the only energy storage I can improvise on short notice).

WillPostForFood 6y ago
You are right if they were trying to reduce load 50%, that's basically impossible for the reasons you mention. They were only trying to get it down 20% and it might have worked if they could have effectively rolled the blackouts. A lot of people have natural gas heat. It doesn't work when the power is out (no ignition, no thermostat, and no fan), but doesn't put a huge load on the electric grid when it is on. For a well insulated house, you are probably running the heat for much less than 50% of the day. We run on average 6-8 hours in the winter. A rolling blackout where power was off for 1 hour, on for 2 would have exceeded their target savings, and shouldn't have affected heating or demand.
- gkop 6y ago
  > A lot of people have natural gas heat. It doesn't work when the power is out That doesn’t have to be the case. I have gas heat [0], that works fine when our power is out. (Not intending to detract from the rest of your point) [0] a basic Williams wall furnace on a 50 year old thermostat.
  - WillPostForFood 6y ago
    How does the thermostat work? I've had the old mercury switch style thermostats before, but those work by completing a circuit, so I assumed they were dependent on power being on.
    - gkop 6y ago
      Googling tells me it’s “a pilot millivolt system”. I guess the downside of this design is that the pilot* is always lit, consuming a certain amount of fuel. Neat old quick start guide for a similar thermostat: http://nebula.wsimg.com/b2bc334b6de3591406ddd01974f01830?AccessKeyId=5F08A6A047671B630469&disposition=0&alloworigin=1 http://nebula.wsimg.com/b2bc334b6de3591406ddd01974f01830?Acc... * pilot is manual piezoelectric; doesn’t require electric power
  - pixl97 6y ago
    How does it blow heat around the house?
    - gkop 6y ago
      It’s a wall furnace in the center of the apartment, I guess it blows via convection, outward on both sides of the wall. These heaters are super common in California, and some larger homes have multiple of them. I assume they’re not as efficient as more modern solutions, but they are certainly reliable and low-maintenance.
    - Johnny555 6y ago
      Not very well, I lived in an apartment with one of those in the hallway, had to set up a fan to blow warm air to the living room or bedrooms or it got way too cold on cold nights. (which fortunately, were rare where I lived). It'd definitely be better than nothing in an extended power failure, but forced air heat is more comfortable
- JamesBarney 6y ago
  I don't know about North Texas but I don't think gas furnaces are that common in Houston or Austin.
  - ineedasername 6y ago
    Propane gas is relatively common, but wither way: 1) Natural gas has been a problem because the moisture in it has been freezing pipes 2) The cold has caused the pressure in propane tanks to drop, impairing their functionality. None of this might have been a huge problem if Texas didn't keep its power grid almost completely separate from the rest of the country. That has meant they can't easily bring in capacity to cover their own lack. Though even moderate winterization would probably have significantly reduced the problems. It's not like they have to prepare for continuous -10 F.
  - WillPostForFood 6y ago
    I don't know what the geographic distribution is, but overall the state is split evenly between between natural gas and electric heat (45% each), with the remainder being misc sources like propane.
  - fuzzfactor 6y ago
    These type were quite common when natural gas lines were first run to households in Houston: Dearborn gas heater example just like the one I had: https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse4.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.EgFFCDJ2j-5VsyUPTk2n4QHaFj%26pid%3DApi&f=1 https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F... In The Heights many original homes have a smaller version(s) built into the wall, sometimes a tiny one right there above the bathtub. After converting to showers sometimes it's right in your face while standing. Without a full set of built-ins, there were natural gas petcocks in each major room for portables or relocatables like Dearborns.
JamesBarney 6y ago
If you gave everyone power 20% of the time though, I don't think the vast majority of people would shift that much load. The only real power consumption anyone does above usual is plug in their phones. And obviously their heaters run full blast.
lultimouomo 6y ago
I wonder why it is not possible to reduce the max amount of power each house can draw by 50% instead of doing blackouts. In Italy houses have remotely controlled meters, if you change contract and have a different power allowance your meter gets reporgrammed without the need of an operator on site. This would force people to consume less power to avoid automatic detachment, while still not leaving them completely in the cold. Don't they have any kind of smart meter in Texas? Maybe reprogramming them is a slow operation that cannot be done to almost every meter in a short timespan?
- KMag 6y ago
  I suspect smart meters are optional / being lazily phased-in. I've been out of the US for a decade, but I know my dad gets a discount on his electricity because he opted-in to a smart meter.

WillPostForFood 6y ago

You are right if they were trying to reduce load 50%, that's basically impossible for the reasons you mention. They were only trying to get it down 20% and it might have worked if they could have effectively rolled the blackouts. A lot of people have natural gas heat. It doesn't work when the power is out (no ignition, no thermostat, and no fan), but doesn't put a huge load on the electric grid when it is on. For a well insulated house, you are probably running the heat for much less than 50% of the day. We run on average 6-8 hours in the winter. A rolling blackout where power was off for 1 hour, on for 2 would have exceeded their target savings, and shouldn't have affected heating or demand.

gkop 6y ago
> A lot of people have natural gas heat. It doesn't work when the power is out That doesn’t have to be the case. I have gas heat [0], that works fine when our power is out. (Not intending to detract from the rest of your point) [0] a basic Williams wall furnace on a 50 year old thermostat.
- WillPostForFood 6y ago
  How does the thermostat work? I've had the old mercury switch style thermostats before, but those work by completing a circuit, so I assumed they were dependent on power being on.
  - gkop 6y ago
    Googling tells me it’s “a pilot millivolt system”. I guess the downside of this design is that the pilot* is always lit, consuming a certain amount of fuel. Neat old quick start guide for a similar thermostat: http://nebula.wsimg.com/b2bc334b6de3591406ddd01974f01830?AccessKeyId=5F08A6A047671B630469&disposition=0&alloworigin=1 http://nebula.wsimg.com/b2bc334b6de3591406ddd01974f01830?Acc... * pilot is manual piezoelectric; doesn’t require electric power
- pixl97 6y ago
  How does it blow heat around the house?
  - gkop 6y ago
    It’s a wall furnace in the center of the apartment, I guess it blows via convection, outward on both sides of the wall. These heaters are super common in California, and some larger homes have multiple of them. I assume they’re not as efficient as more modern solutions, but they are certainly reliable and low-maintenance.
  - Johnny555 6y ago
    Not very well, I lived in an apartment with one of those in the hallway, had to set up a fan to blow warm air to the living room or bedrooms or it got way too cold on cold nights. (which fortunately, were rare where I lived). It'd definitely be better than nothing in an extended power failure, but forced air heat is more comfortable
JamesBarney 6y ago
I don't know about North Texas but I don't think gas furnaces are that common in Houston or Austin.
- ineedasername 6y ago
  Propane gas is relatively common, but wither way: 1) Natural gas has been a problem because the moisture in it has been freezing pipes 2) The cold has caused the pressure in propane tanks to drop, impairing their functionality. None of this might have been a huge problem if Texas didn't keep its power grid almost completely separate from the rest of the country. That has meant they can't easily bring in capacity to cover their own lack. Though even moderate winterization would probably have significantly reduced the problems. It's not like they have to prepare for continuous -10 F.
- WillPostForFood 6y ago
  I don't know what the geographic distribution is, but overall the state is split evenly between between natural gas and electric heat (45% each), with the remainder being misc sources like propane.
- fuzzfactor 6y ago
  These type were quite common when natural gas lines were first run to households in Houston: Dearborn gas heater example just like the one I had: https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse4.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.EgFFCDJ2j-5VsyUPTk2n4QHaFj%26pid%3DApi&f=1 https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F... In The Heights many original homes have a smaller version(s) built into the wall, sometimes a tiny one right there above the bathtub. After converting to showers sometimes it's right in your face while standing. Without a full set of built-ins, there were natural gas petcocks in each major room for portables or relocatables like Dearborns.

JamesBarney 6y ago

If you gave everyone power 20% of the time though, I don't think the vast majority of people would shift that much load. The only real power consumption anyone does above usual is plug in their phones. And obviously their heaters run full blast.

lultimouomo 6y ago

I wonder why it is not possible to reduce the max amount of power each house can draw by 50% instead of doing blackouts. In Italy houses have remotely controlled meters, if you change contract and have a different power allowance your meter gets reporgrammed without the need of an operator on site. This would force people to consume less power to avoid automatic detachment, while still not leaving them completely in the cold. Don't they have any kind of smart meter in Texas? Maybe reprogramming them is a slow operation that cannot be done to almost every meter in a short timespan?

KMag 6y ago
I suspect smart meters are optional / being lazily phased-in. I've been out of the US for a decade, but I know my dad gets a discount on his electricity because he opted-in to a smart meter.