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It's hilarious to look back on this HN post and the top comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14630650 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14630650 Ex

It's hilarious to look back on this HN post and the top comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14630650 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14630650 Exactly the same thing happened in South Australia in 2016 1) Renewables % of generation mix grows (wind + solar) 2) Base generation sources get pushed out by economics and regulation (coal) 3) Peak generation sources get squeezed by the economics of wind + solar over summer (lots of wind, lots of sun) and begin to be relegated to backup roles 4) Something bad happens (in SA it was software misconfiguration across multiple wind generation sources) 5) The backup generation gets used for the first time, suprise suprise it doesnt work 6) chaos

ashtonkem 6y ago
Yeah, but none of that appears to actually be what happened. Renewables are down from their peak capacity in Texas, but they're actually performing above what the grid thought they'd do. So it's not like ERCOT got caught with their pants down when it comes to renewable generation. Instead the issue appears to be that thermal (gas, coal, and nuclear) plants all over Texas are failing in the face of cold weather, and because Texas has its own grid it can't shift enough power from nearby states in order to cover the demand. And it's not like these plants were off and everyone is surprised that they didn't turn on; Texas gets most of its power from natural gas most of the time. More to the point cold weather specific recommendations from back in 2011 weren't followed with sadly predictable consequences.
bbreier 6y ago
I think you might have missed this important line: > Most of the power knocked offline came from thermal sources, Woodfin said, particularly natural gas.
- cavisne 6y ago
  backup generation (gas) is not working. As mentioned. When your only on-demand source of generation is only profitable in peak periods its a recipe for disaster.
  - newacct583 6y ago
    Texas gas plants aren't "backup generation". Those are always available, almost always on, full-time-operated facilities.
    - angry_octet 6y ago
      Yes in Texas gas is used for base load. Strangely the rules under which some of them operate involve them paying for gas at spot prices (or at least during peak demand), and with spot gas prices being so high (due to pipeline failures limiting supply, and gas for heating having precedence) they had the option to stop generating...
  - woeirua 6y ago
    Again, this is not what is actually happening. Texas has heaps of on demand natural gas generators. They froze up with the storm and failed to turn on. Has nothing to do with renewable.
  - 8note 6y ago
    It sounds like in texas's case, the backup generation (renewables) aren't built up enough to take over for when traditional power goes down
    - kortilla 6y ago
      Renewables aren’t backup generation. They can’t be activated on demand to cover dips.
cromwellian 6y ago
Sorry, but no. A 2011 FERC report cited problems in Texas gas/coal/nuke plants for failing to weatherize. They didn't fix the problems, and gas and sensing lines froze, taking gas/coal plants offline too. 2/3rds of the power that went offline from the storm was fossil. Moreover, Texas's independent grid (not connected to the rest of the US) makes it difficult for them to import power from neighboring states. Stop trying to push political tribalist stories that blame renewables for bog standard failures in traditional systems that could have been avoided. https://www.powermag.com/ferc-nerc-february-blackouts-in-the-southwest-could-have-been-avoided/ https://www.powermag.com/ferc-nerc-february-blackouts-in-the...
- cavisne 6y ago
  The heavy reliance on natural gas is not traditional. Its a side effect of 1)
  - cromwellian 6y ago
    No, it's because natural gas got cheaper, and they switched to the cheaper source. "The report also addresses the interdependency of the electric and natural gas industries. “Utilities are becoming increasingly reliant on gas-fired generation, in large part because shale production has dramatically reduced the cost of gas,” In 2011 when this happened before, Texas had even less renewables. I realize you're trying to hard to sell an ideology to blame renewables for what is really, gross mismanagement of the Texas grid, including fossil and nuclear power, but the reality is much more complex than your simple narrative. https://twitter.com/i/events/1361767999200317440 https://twitter.com/i/events/1361767999200317440
    - hef19898 6y ago
      Which fossil source is cheaper also largely depends on individual markets. The way carbon offset and carbon pricing is implemented in Germany for example, means coal got cheaper than natural gas for electricity. Despite being bad at ramping up quick and being really worse for the climate and environment. Gas would also be a good companion to renewables, simply because a gas turbine is very reactive, something a coal plant is not.

ashtonkem 6y ago

Yeah, but none of that appears to actually be what happened. Renewables are down from their peak capacity in Texas, but they're actually performing above what the grid thought they'd do. So it's not like ERCOT got caught with their pants down when it comes to renewable generation. Instead the issue appears to be that thermal (gas, coal, and nuclear) plants all over Texas are failing in the face of cold weather, and because Texas has its own grid it can't shift enough power from nearby states in order to cover the demand. And it's not like these plants were off and everyone is surprised that they didn't turn on; Texas gets most of its power from natural gas most of the time. More to the point cold weather specific recommendations from back in 2011 weren't followed with sadly predictable consequences.

bbreier 6y ago

I think you might have missed this important line: > Most of the power knocked offline came from thermal sources, Woodfin said, particularly natural gas.

cavisne 6y ago
backup generation (gas) is not working. As mentioned. When your only on-demand source of generation is only profitable in peak periods its a recipe for disaster.
- newacct583 6y ago
  Texas gas plants aren't "backup generation". Those are always available, almost always on, full-time-operated facilities.
  - angry_octet 6y ago
    Yes in Texas gas is used for base load. Strangely the rules under which some of them operate involve them paying for gas at spot prices (or at least during peak demand), and with spot gas prices being so high (due to pipeline failures limiting supply, and gas for heating having precedence) they had the option to stop generating...
- woeirua 6y ago
  Again, this is not what is actually happening. Texas has heaps of on demand natural gas generators. They froze up with the storm and failed to turn on. Has nothing to do with renewable.
- 8note 6y ago
  It sounds like in texas's case, the backup generation (renewables) aren't built up enough to take over for when traditional power goes down
  - kortilla 6y ago
    Renewables aren’t backup generation. They can’t be activated on demand to cover dips.

cromwellian 6y ago

Sorry, but no. A 2011 FERC report cited problems in Texas gas/coal/nuke plants for failing to weatherize. They didn't fix the problems, and gas and sensing lines froze, taking gas/coal plants offline too. 2/3rds of the power that went offline from the storm was fossil. Moreover, Texas's independent grid (not connected to the rest of the US) makes it difficult for them to import power from neighboring states. Stop trying to push political tribalist stories that blame renewables for bog standard failures in traditional systems that could have been avoided. https://www.powermag.com/ferc-nerc-february-blackouts-in-the-southwest-could-have-been-avoided/ https://www.powermag.com/ferc-nerc-february-blackouts-in-the...

cavisne 6y ago
The heavy reliance on natural gas is not traditional. Its a side effect of 1)
- cromwellian 6y ago
  No, it's because natural gas got cheaper, and they switched to the cheaper source. "The report also addresses the interdependency of the electric and natural gas industries. “Utilities are becoming increasingly reliant on gas-fired generation, in large part because shale production has dramatically reduced the cost of gas,” In 2011 when this happened before, Texas had even less renewables. I realize you're trying to hard to sell an ideology to blame renewables for what is really, gross mismanagement of the Texas grid, including fossil and nuclear power, but the reality is much more complex than your simple narrative. https://twitter.com/i/events/1361767999200317440 https://twitter.com/i/events/1361767999200317440
  - hef19898 6y ago
    Which fossil source is cheaper also largely depends on individual markets. The way carbon offset and carbon pricing is implemented in Germany for example, means coal got cheaper than natural gas for electricity. Despite being bad at ramping up quick and being really worse for the climate and environment. Gas would also be a good companion to renewables, simply because a gas turbine is very reactive, something a coal plant is not.