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Can somebody explain as if I were a kindergartner why exactly natural gas is down by such a large amount in the state? Did the pipes freeze? Does natural gas no

Can somebody explain as if I were a kindergartner why exactly natural gas is down by such a large amount in the state? Did the pipes freeze? Does natural gas not burn efficiently in snowy conditions? How will raising the spot price dramatically help with these physical conditions of the pipelines/other power production/distribution apparatus in such a way that providing power becomes available more quickly (if at all)? [1] Has Texas never had weather like this in 350ish years and there was no reasonable justification for preparing for something like this? [1]https://mobile.twitter.com/jmontforttx/status/1361703554789031937 https://mobile.twitter.com/jmontforttx/status/13617035547890...

ceejayoz 6y ago
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/ https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-st... > The systems that get gas from the earth aren't properly built for cold weather. Operators in West Texas’ Permian Basin, one of the most productive oil fields in the world, are particularly struggling to bring natural gas to the surface, analysts said, as cold weather and snow close wells or cause power outages that prevent pumping the fossil fuels from the ground. > “Gathering lines freeze, and the wells get so cold that they can’t produce,” said Parker Fawcett, a natural gas analyst for S&P Global Platts. “And, pumps use electricity, so they’re not even able to lift that gas and liquid, because there’s no power to produce.” > Texas does not have as much storage capacity as other states, experts said, because the resource-laden state can easily pull it from the ground when it's needed — usually.
- newbie789 6y ago
  So, to answer my specific questions 1. So basically, this is the worst winter in the history of Texas to such an extent that nobody could have possibly predicted this? That sucks. 2. Can you answer my question about the spot price increase? What does that accomplish in immediate terms? As a sub-question, the article that I'm asking about says that electricity generators haven't been able to make money for over a decade. Why have they been providing this for free (or worse at a loss!) for so long? That sounds like some top-notch philanthropy! Is this an issue of the private company providing electricity at a loss statewide for so long that they can't stand the financial hit of maintaining their systems when strained for more than a couple days?
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    >So basically, this is the worst winter in the history of Texas to such an extent that nobody could have possibly predicted this? More like "to the extent that people who were actually accountable for how money was spent couldn't justify spending the money to hedge against it". Could you justify to your boss spending 5% per year on a project to hedge against something that happens every 50-100yr and has a 10% chance of really screwing you when it does? Exactly this but applied across every utility in an entire state. Know-it-alls on the internet, love to tell other people how to spend their money but the real world is more complex and doesn't have the luxury of hindsight.
    - snowwindwaves 6y ago
      Plus they are not really screwed, they lost 5 days revenue from not being able to pump/generate, surely at elevated prices - but these businesses will not feel this event in a negative way on their annual report
    - mjevans 6y ago
      I could for a 10-20 year contingency, particularly if lost property and lives were my liability (which they should be for this case).
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    > So basically, this is the worst winter in the history of Texas to such an extent that nobody could have possibly predicted this? It's a bad winter, but not "nobody could have possibly predicted this" bad. Some cities are breaking records, but quite a few haven't. For example Austin's Tuesday low of 7F is cold, but not quite as low as the record from December 23rd 1989 (6F). San Antonio recently tied their all time low from December 22nd 1990. Obviously "coldest winter in 30 years" is quite the statement, but it's still well within living memory and not the distant past. Chances are most of the policy makers and system designers for the TX energy system personally remember the winters of 1989 and 1990. There's also a 2011 report recommending that TX winterize its power systems in case this exact thing happened. So at least back in 2011 energy experts saw this as a distinct possibility.
geoduck14 6y ago
Texan here! This weather is CRAZY, I've NEVER seen something quite like this. I've seen it dip down to the teens, before, but I haven't seen: sub 20, with snow, for more than 2 days... across the entire state. I'm not entirely certain why we are sucking hard at making electricity, but here is what I've heard: Nat Gas pipelines "close to the well" are "freezing" because they have a lot of impurities (like water) that are literally freezing amd clogging the pipes. I'm not sure why wind is down (maybe bad lubricant???). I'm also not sure why the power plants designed to run on oil (or Nuclear!!!) aren't sufficient.
- sounds 6y ago
  Thanks for this insight. I would suspect that Coal and Natural Gas generation plants use a lot of water for cooling. When the plant is designed to dump as much extra heat as possible, as cheaply as possible (for 100-degree days and ~200-degree hot water), things start to fall over when the cooling water freezes in the uninsulated cooling lines. Or, it's pretty much lack of winterization and lack of a plan for this kind of cold. Just speculating.
- evgen 6y ago
  Wind turbines that are not built for cold weather operations will have problems with lubricants for joints and bearings and icing on the blades. The icing does the same thing to turbine blades as it does to plane wings (i.e. makes them suck in terms of aerodynamics and kills lift) and as the blades slow the friction and load from the lubricant failure means that eventually the turbine will stop spinning and then just freeze up.
- fuzzfactor 6y ago
  This is how I put it 2 days ago, right before the failure here: >Crude natural gas is usually saturated with water downhole at warm temperatures and high pressures, some of which condenses as it is produced at the surface. >At many points in a pipeline further water removal can be essential too. >Even when not liquefied like LPG, when passing through a restriction valve or orifice, there is still additional cooling due to the product acting a bit like a refigerant. >The water content may be small but the quantity of cold gas passing through a narrow point which is well below 0C eventually can build up kilos of ice and block the flow until the ambient temperature rises enough to open it back up.
cydonian_monk 6y ago
The way the natural gas issue has been explained to us over the last two days is there are two issues. First: natural gas is prioritized for home usage, which has understandably skyrocketed over the last several days. There was not enough left in the gas market for the standby power plants to buy up to burn; and what was available was inaccessible due to price and price caps. Second: The standby generating plants themselves suffered failures due to excessive cold. This also affected coal and nuclear plants (one of the reactors at the South Texas plant shut down automatically after the intake water in its cooling pond froze). The emergency charges for the spot prices changes from that order are recent news that I've not had time to digest yet and as such can't reply to. Apologies for not providing sources - barely have cellular data service at the moment and have only had electric back for a handful of hours. (Edit: And I jinxed myself there... back in the cold dark again.)

ceejayoz 6y ago

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/ https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-st... > The systems that get gas from the earth aren't properly built for cold weather. Operators in West Texas’ Permian Basin, one of the most productive oil fields in the world, are particularly struggling to bring natural gas to the surface, analysts said, as cold weather and snow close wells or cause power outages that prevent pumping the fossil fuels from the ground. > “Gathering lines freeze, and the wells get so cold that they can’t produce,” said Parker Fawcett, a natural gas analyst for S&P Global Platts. “And, pumps use electricity, so they’re not even able to lift that gas and liquid, because there’s no power to produce.” > Texas does not have as much storage capacity as other states, experts said, because the resource-laden state can easily pull it from the ground when it's needed — usually.

newbie789 6y ago
So, to answer my specific questions 1. So basically, this is the worst winter in the history of Texas to such an extent that nobody could have possibly predicted this? That sucks. 2. Can you answer my question about the spot price increase? What does that accomplish in immediate terms? As a sub-question, the article that I'm asking about says that electricity generators haven't been able to make money for over a decade. Why have they been providing this for free (or worse at a loss!) for so long? That sounds like some top-notch philanthropy! Is this an issue of the private company providing electricity at a loss statewide for so long that they can't stand the financial hit of maintaining their systems when strained for more than a couple days?
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  >So basically, this is the worst winter in the history of Texas to such an extent that nobody could have possibly predicted this? More like "to the extent that people who were actually accountable for how money was spent couldn't justify spending the money to hedge against it". Could you justify to your boss spending 5% per year on a project to hedge against something that happens every 50-100yr and has a 10% chance of really screwing you when it does? Exactly this but applied across every utility in an entire state. Know-it-alls on the internet, love to tell other people how to spend their money but the real world is more complex and doesn't have the luxury of hindsight.
  - snowwindwaves 6y ago
    Plus they are not really screwed, they lost 5 days revenue from not being able to pump/generate, surely at elevated prices - but these businesses will not feel this event in a negative way on their annual report
  - mjevans 6y ago
    I could for a 10-20 year contingency, particularly if lost property and lives were my liability (which they should be for this case).
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  > So basically, this is the worst winter in the history of Texas to such an extent that nobody could have possibly predicted this? It's a bad winter, but not "nobody could have possibly predicted this" bad. Some cities are breaking records, but quite a few haven't. For example Austin's Tuesday low of 7F is cold, but not quite as low as the record from December 23rd 1989 (6F). San Antonio recently tied their all time low from December 22nd 1990. Obviously "coldest winter in 30 years" is quite the statement, but it's still well within living memory and not the distant past. Chances are most of the policy makers and system designers for the TX energy system personally remember the winters of 1989 and 1990. There's also a 2011 report recommending that TX winterize its power systems in case this exact thing happened. So at least back in 2011 energy experts saw this as a distinct possibility.

geoduck14 6y ago

Texan here! This weather is CRAZY, I've NEVER seen something quite like this. I've seen it dip down to the teens, before, but I haven't seen: sub 20, with snow, for more than 2 days... across the entire state. I'm not entirely certain why we are sucking hard at making electricity, but here is what I've heard: Nat Gas pipelines "close to the well" are "freezing" because they have a lot of impurities (like water) that are literally freezing amd clogging the pipes. I'm not sure why wind is down (maybe bad lubricant???). I'm also not sure why the power plants designed to run on oil (or Nuclear!!!) aren't sufficient.

sounds 6y ago
Thanks for this insight. I would suspect that Coal and Natural Gas generation plants use a lot of water for cooling. When the plant is designed to dump as much extra heat as possible, as cheaply as possible (for 100-degree days and ~200-degree hot water), things start to fall over when the cooling water freezes in the uninsulated cooling lines. Or, it's pretty much lack of winterization and lack of a plan for this kind of cold. Just speculating.
evgen 6y ago
Wind turbines that are not built for cold weather operations will have problems with lubricants for joints and bearings and icing on the blades. The icing does the same thing to turbine blades as it does to plane wings (i.e. makes them suck in terms of aerodynamics and kills lift) and as the blades slow the friction and load from the lubricant failure means that eventually the turbine will stop spinning and then just freeze up.
fuzzfactor 6y ago
This is how I put it 2 days ago, right before the failure here: >Crude natural gas is usually saturated with water downhole at warm temperatures and high pressures, some of which condenses as it is produced at the surface. >At many points in a pipeline further water removal can be essential too. >Even when not liquefied like LPG, when passing through a restriction valve or orifice, there is still additional cooling due to the product acting a bit like a refigerant. >The water content may be small but the quantity of cold gas passing through a narrow point which is well below 0C eventually can build up kilos of ice and block the flow until the ambient temperature rises enough to open it back up.

cydonian_monk 6y ago

The way the natural gas issue has been explained to us over the last two days is there are two issues. First: natural gas is prioritized for home usage, which has understandably skyrocketed over the last several days. There was not enough left in the gas market for the standby power plants to buy up to burn; and what was available was inaccessible due to price and price caps. Second: The standby generating plants themselves suffered failures due to excessive cold. This also affected coal and nuclear plants (one of the reactors at the South Texas plant shut down automatically after the intake water in its cooling pond froze). The emergency charges for the spot prices changes from that order are recent news that I've not had time to digest yet and as such can't reply to. Apologies for not providing sources - barely have cellular data service at the moment and have only had electric back for a handful of hours. (Edit: And I jinxed myself there... back in the cold dark again.)