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Yup, same. Hell if I put in money now and it did 2x and went to $100k, I'd get out, too. There's just no way I see myself not getting out at $100k or say $200k

Yup, same. Hell if I put in money now and it did 2x and went to $100k, I'd get out, too. There's just no way I see myself not getting out at $100k or say $200k. And I'm not risking my money on an investment that can 'only' do 2x or 4x. Bitcoin was cool as it could do 10x or 100x in the span of 1-2 years. But with the numbers where they're at and knowing myself, I'd cash out way before that. In the end because bitcoin isn't being used by virtually anyone, and is only valuable because of the momentum/hype (i.e., the reason I'd buy it is only because other people buying it solely for the purpose of thinking even more others will buy it only for speculation and not use, and the price rises), it's just not an interesting investment for me long-term. Short-term it could be but I'd be as not surprised if it did -50% as if it did +50% in the next year. Not really interested in that kind of exposure, given that I don't think I'll ever hold enough to enjoy the extreme potential upside.

Viliam1234 6y ago
Interesting to read this, as my instincts are completely different. Wouldn't a better strategy be to e.g. wait until Bitcoin doubles (which you believe is likely to happen), then sell half (so that you get your money back, sans inflation)... and then for the following twenty years, sell 5% of the remaining Bitcoins each year? The greatest risk is that maybe Bitcoin never doubles, and maybe you lose all the money you put it. But at the moment the price doubles and you sell half, so you get your money back... why throw away the chance of maybe getting insanely rich in the future?
- chrisco255 6y ago
  To me, it really depends on one's financial situation. It's much easier to hodl if you have a good-paying job with benefits, a 401K with a healthy amount stocked away, a decent savings reserve, or equity on a house. Also helps if you've played a lot of poker.
- IkmoIkmo 6y ago
  You're making a mental difference that's not an actual difference. Suppose you have 100k, invest 20k of it in bitcoin and it doubles. You now have 40k bitcoin and 120k in total. You could say, sell half the bitcoin, you now still have 100k in other assets and 20k in bitcoin. Even if you lose the entire 20k, you'll never lose more than what you put in. But what does it matter? Fact is, you still lose 20k if bitcoin goes to zero. The fact you already made 20k on it doesn't change that fact. The source of your wealth should not indicate whether a loss is good or bad, or bearable or unbearable. At the end of the day, a loss is a loss. All your wealth goes into one big pot, you can't say 'this part is from savings, this part is from bitcoin'. It's just money, and losing it sucks. Of course there is something to be said about reducing your exposure to bitcoin as you grow richer and need to take less risky bets. But that's only great after the fact that bitcoin keeps going up in price. If bitcoin goes down in price, it's of course a poor idea to sell slowly instead of all at once. Again, a loss of $X is a loss of $X. At the end of the day, virtually everyone holds bitcoin not for the actual value of e.g. owning a small portion of Apple which sells something hundreds of millions of people use daily, profits, which flows back to you. Instead virtually everyone holds it simply because others are, and by doing so together, it keeps going up in price. You could apply the same to any other (scarce) good. Like a useless but rare metal. Or indeed, a useless copy-paste of the bitcoin software, to start a new crypto. Bitcoin's price isn't because it's valuable, it's because of a common idea to buy it because it'll make us rich. And that idea cannot hold true on anything but faith. Humans are pretty crazy and so I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin goes to $200k within 2-3 years. But it's still an insane investment proposition to me. (coming from a person who held 100% of his net worth in bitcoin for 3 years or so, btw).
vinger 6y ago
If you bought 11 months ago at 5,000 you would have made 10x cashing out today. It's never too late to buy in and if so there are other coins.
- jodrellblank 6y ago
  You could have made 10x on Tesla (TSLA) last year from March to December from ~$85 to ~$860 and at least Tesla has a factory, employees, a product, plans for future products and expansion of some kind, exists within a legal system, is on an exchange with some regulation, etc.
  - vinger 6y ago
    I feel safer with bitcoin. The reasons for it to exist are more solid than if Musk's helicopter goes down tomorrow.
cromka 6y ago
I made 30k in ETH this year and cashed out at $1275. "Lost" $13k by not waiting longer. Do I regret? I had no way of knowing. I just pulled the trigger, with my guts telling me "this is probably ripe for a blow up now". There's no way of knowing what the "collective mind" decides once the big players start selling off.

Viliam1234 6y ago

Interesting to read this, as my instincts are completely different. Wouldn't a better strategy be to e.g. wait until Bitcoin doubles (which you believe is likely to happen), then sell half (so that you get your money back, sans inflation)... and then for the following twenty years, sell 5% of the remaining Bitcoins each year? The greatest risk is that maybe Bitcoin never doubles, and maybe you lose all the money you put it. But at the moment the price doubles and you sell half, so you get your money back... why throw away the chance of maybe getting insanely rich in the future?

chrisco255 6y ago
To me, it really depends on one's financial situation. It's much easier to hodl if you have a good-paying job with benefits, a 401K with a healthy amount stocked away, a decent savings reserve, or equity on a house. Also helps if you've played a lot of poker.
IkmoIkmo 6y ago
You're making a mental difference that's not an actual difference. Suppose you have 100k, invest 20k of it in bitcoin and it doubles. You now have 40k bitcoin and 120k in total. You could say, sell half the bitcoin, you now still have 100k in other assets and 20k in bitcoin. Even if you lose the entire 20k, you'll never lose more than what you put in. But what does it matter? Fact is, you still lose 20k if bitcoin goes to zero. The fact you already made 20k on it doesn't change that fact. The source of your wealth should not indicate whether a loss is good or bad, or bearable or unbearable. At the end of the day, a loss is a loss. All your wealth goes into one big pot, you can't say 'this part is from savings, this part is from bitcoin'. It's just money, and losing it sucks. Of course there is something to be said about reducing your exposure to bitcoin as you grow richer and need to take less risky bets. But that's only great after the fact that bitcoin keeps going up in price. If bitcoin goes down in price, it's of course a poor idea to sell slowly instead of all at once. Again, a loss of $X is a loss of $X. At the end of the day, virtually everyone holds bitcoin not for the actual value of e.g. owning a small portion of Apple which sells something hundreds of millions of people use daily, profits, which flows back to you. Instead virtually everyone holds it simply because others are, and by doing so together, it keeps going up in price. You could apply the same to any other (scarce) good. Like a useless but rare metal. Or indeed, a useless copy-paste of the bitcoin software, to start a new crypto. Bitcoin's price isn't because it's valuable, it's because of a common idea to buy it because it'll make us rich. And that idea cannot hold true on anything but faith. Humans are pretty crazy and so I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin goes to $200k within 2-3 years. But it's still an insane investment proposition to me. (coming from a person who held 100% of his net worth in bitcoin for 3 years or so, btw).

vinger 6y ago

If you bought 11 months ago at 5,000 you would have made 10x cashing out today. It's never too late to buy in and if so there are other coins.

jodrellblank 6y ago
You could have made 10x on Tesla (TSLA) last year from March to December from ~$85 to ~$860 and at least Tesla has a factory, employees, a product, plans for future products and expansion of some kind, exists within a legal system, is on an exchange with some regulation, etc.
- vinger 6y ago
  I feel safer with bitcoin. The reasons for it to exist are more solid than if Musk's helicopter goes down tomorrow.

cromka 6y ago

I made 30k in ETH this year and cashed out at $1275. "Lost" $13k by not waiting longer. Do I regret? I had no way of knowing. I just pulled the trigger, with my guts telling me "this is probably ripe for a blow up now". There's no way of knowing what the "collective mind" decides once the big players start selling off.